tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47388455189774665602024-01-15T09:38:57.602+00:00Dispatches from PaisleyMy take on news & politics from the front line of schemie culture. Just watch for the flying bottles of buckie on your way out!Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.comBlogger492125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-6752310214464347902018-01-22T13:00:00.000+00:002018-01-22T18:47:33.435+00:00Davy, The RAH And Their Part In The SNP Jumping The SharkGiven the poor 2017 that the SNP had, with criticism mounting of their performance in government, accusations of putting the constitutional question ahead of everything else and being the only major party to lose seats and votes in the June Westminster election, you can understand why they’d want to retake the political narrative they lost in the aftermath of the EU Referendum. To do it in such a self satisfied and inaccurate way though shows an SNP in some trouble.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjluSrYB2MYiO9mawX08nCXS50oBrcTwKQsjEGFdttqFu2Rebcj13-ktql_nqgFMaa-UR5aiqFy3SyenTmz0lGcqSKJ8v4V7Dn4odh97yf0qYePJ2zwoALebqP91GrYGYKRoh6io27ehlg/s1600/Robison-RAH.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="366" data-original-width="650" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjluSrYB2MYiO9mawX08nCXS50oBrcTwKQsjEGFdttqFu2Rebcj13-ktql_nqgFMaa-UR5aiqFy3SyenTmz0lGcqSKJ8v4V7Dn4odh97yf0qYePJ2zwoALebqP91GrYGYKRoh6io27ehlg/s400/Robison-RAH.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>Health Secretary, Shona Robison, meets RAH campaigners (and local<br />MSP Neil Bibby) at a meeting, 19 May 2017</i></span></span></td></tr>
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The part that captured the headline’s of the SNP’s PBB is the ‘Davy’ character. ‘Davy’ is the caricature every ‘SNPBad’ pro-Yoon person of every SNP staffer’s dreams/nightmares. That he has a passing resemblance to the Scottish Commentariat’s ‘only Tory in the village’ David Torrance, is purely incidental. Of course the SNP wouldn’t, in spite of the delight of the ‘Yes’ fundamentalists, be so crass and stupid to attack a high profile critic of the SNP. True, he comes across as bumptious and self important on the media. But for the governing party to parody a critic in such a vicious fashion is disturbing.<br />
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Of the glaring inaccuracies in this video, that ‘Davy’ does not have anyone agreeing with him is one that seems to be missed. In any gathering I’ve attended, attitudes towards the SNP government are divided and supporters are not quite as vocal as they are here. I’m sure that this scenario is much more representative than the universal love in displayed there, though probably not in the mind’s eye of the ad’s creators.<br />
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While there are big inaccuracies in the film (Schools were rebuilt under the Labour/Lib Dem executives, financed by PFI, Fracking isn’t banned but subject to an indefinite moratorium and given the mess of Police Scotland, would you trust their crime statistics?) and some of the other ‘achievements’ are things we would want a government to be doing anyway (Free prescriptions), the PBB itself is the most cack handed and ugly piece of virtue signalling since Matt Damon. Three days down the line though, the part that stands out is the part about NHS funding, about the 12,000 extra people working in the NHS and protecting public services.<br />
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That bit now sounds just a tad hollow now, given the Health Secretary’s decision on Friday.<br />
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I had previously written about the closure of the children’s ward at the local Royal Alexandria Hospital last year in the context of Scottish Labour’s inability to make cogent arguments on this issue. At the time, this was a decision made by Greater Glasgow Health Board and theirs alone, the final say was still to be made by the Health Secretary, Shona Robison. Therefore at that point it was untrue for Scottish Labour to say that the SNP planned to close the ward. As it happens, I still don’t think that’s true. However the Health Secretary’s decision, announced on Friday, to rubber stamp GGHB’s decision to close the ward and move those services to a hospital 7 miles away means two things.<br />
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For one thing it destroys a key plank of the SNP’s armoury that they will protect public services, as this claim is now a self evident lie. Robison’s decision is potentially this SNP government’s ‘jump the shark’ moment, their “Black Wednesday” if you will. I say potentially because, of course, it rests on the ability of the opposition to win over the voters and make this self inflicted wound into something terminal for the SNP. After all, “Westland’s” in 1986 did not see the end of Thatcher in no small thanks to Kinnocks inadequacies. But it’s possible that given the right response, in other words not unthinking “SNPBad”, that this issue could bring the SNP down at the next election.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0jjlVqW6Qsfsq16BB5xAAkO4g4j3z2N_PDrF1YmEV21wACo7TbwPlTeggR3xDgUqUF9VNXfE707q_71poAU7I9wVIOJkLA52L-otT5Rz-U9QC3LIILTay9-jFPmbQ1DoOLicMvN5QrY/s1600/Davy-SNP+PBB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="650" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0jjlVqW6Qsfsq16BB5xAAkO4g4j3z2N_PDrF1YmEV21wACo7TbwPlTeggR3xDgUqUF9VNXfE707q_71poAU7I9wVIOJkLA52L-otT5Rz-U9QC3LIILTay9-jFPmbQ1DoOLicMvN5QrY/s320/Davy-SNP+PBB.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>Paul Sinclair, yesterday...</i></span></span></td></tr>
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The second thing is that I think this is a direct consequence of the SNP’s conservatism. Like ‘Scottish’ Labour before them, the SNP are now content to manage our public services and argue for more money to be thrown at them, but not to argue for improvements or changes to those public services. As a result, they do not see the issues arising from our public services not working as they should. The relevant evidence here being the performance of Greater Glasgow Health Board and their mismanagement of the RAH.<br />
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For years the RAH was not a well run hospital. It was not well run under the Labour/Lib Dem executive and it is still not well run by the SNP government. Since the new Southern General hospital was opened though, there has been a gradual downgrading of services by the GGHB. Services have been side lined in favour of the new hospital about 40 odd minutes travelling time away on public transport. Or if you’re an Yes fundamentalist, 5 minutes away. So for the “Cybernats” to say that the RAH is not fit for purpose, then whose fault is that then? The SNP government that have been in post for 10 plus years, and have had every opportunity to reform the NHS, or GGHB, who have mismanaged the hospital in Scotland’s largest town without a peep of protest from either this government or the McConnell led Labour/Lib Dem administration.<br />
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If GGHB are to blame, then who then has been guilty of providing them with the autonomy to fail? I don’t think Robison or the SNP Government planned to close this ward at all, however I think that’s been GGHB’s intention all along. Robison & the SNP’s failing is in their lack of backbone and leadership on this issue, though there is an argument there that perhaps the SNP’s mitts could be placed on the designs given that the new Southern General is in the First Ministers constituency. But no, given Robison’s intransigence in the past to the treatment of the RAH by GGHB then this act of sheer spinelessness fits in perfectly with Robison’s behaviour. Do not challenge, accept the ‘experts’ view and move on, arguing that anyone who disagrees has an agenda or is a full card carrying yoon. And these people expect to win a referendum behaving like this....<br />
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Perceived wisdom within the SNP bubble is that this PBB has been a success. It has not. It has blown up in their faces, torpedoed by a supine Health Secretary who’s clearly out of her depth in the post rather than offended members of the Scottish commentariat. If the last four days have shown us anything, it is that the trajectory of the SNP since the EU referendum is continuing and that that the signs of political entropy are setting in at speed (Arrogance, poor policy development, lack of grip on government). In the meantime, while campaigners mourn their defeat, this acts as yet more evidence of the First Minister’s terrible political judgement and being an awful political strategist.Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-64949617736596582712018-01-15T12:00:00.000+00:002018-01-15T12:00:28.286+00:00First Footing 2018 With The Best Of 2017<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">First of all, can
I wish you a belated Happy New Year and hope that 2018 is a better year for you
than 2017.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">In 2017, we had
41 posts, the most posts in a year since 2011.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was a year dominated by the fallout of last years EU Referendum, the
SNP’s loss of control of the political narrative and May’s cut and run election
which backfired spectacularly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet with
the exception of the number one on this list (and I suspect you all know what
it is), every post in the top 10 was in the first half of the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without further ado, lets get to that top
10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cue The Wizard...</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">At 10 is a post
about the big losers from June’s General Election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The SNP did win the Scottish ‘leg’ of the
Westminster Election, but lost more seats net and more voters and dropped more
% points than the Tories and “<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/slipping-through-fingers.html">Slipping Through Fingers</a></span>” explained why
Sturgeon’s own ‘Imperial’ phase was over. At number 9 was one of a series of
pieces burying the Labour Party (as was). <a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/dying-before-our-eyes.html">"<span style="color: #134f5c;">Dying Before Our Eyes</span>"</a> lamented the
paucity of political intelligence among Labour circles, especially when it came
to campaigning against closures of local hospital wards recommended by,
essentially, QUANGO’s.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">At 8 is one of a
number of posts about Indyref 2 and why the clamour for an Autumn 2018 vote
will lead to disaster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/asking-question.html">Asking The Question</a></span>” was also part inspired by Steve Richards “Leadership Reflections”
talks about UK Prime Ministers that was shown on the BBC Parliament channel and
was the place that pinpointed the concept of ‘Political space’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Number seven in the list is about another of
the SNP’s issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mhari Black’s election
address was an appealing address aimed at a left of centre audience, which
blanked her own parties own rightwards move at Holyrood and “<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/a-lesson-in-talking-left-and-acting.html">A Lesson in Talking Left and Acting Right</a></span>” (incidentally a charge I used to level against Gordon Brown)
discussed this dichotomy. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">At six is a post
where I say that the leader of the Labour Party is essentially a “<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/dead-man-walking.html">Dead Man Walking</a></span>”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As it happens, a lot of the
criticisms I make are still valid. He’s still not a great orator, he is still
not as flexible enough at public speaking though he has improved at the
dispatch box.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m still not sure he’s
handled the fallout of the EU referendum well either, though i don’t think he
should go down the route advocated by both the SNP and Blair and champion the
‘Remoaner’ cause.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Into the top five
and at five is one of the two ‘guest’ posts that appeared in this 10th
anniversary year of this blog.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both the
Scottish Labour activist Lauren Gilmour and SNP candidate in May’s council
elections Brian McGuire wrote guest posts, with Brian’s take on his campaign,
“<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/not-to-be-this-time.html">Not To Be This Time</a></span>” reaching the top five.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At four is a post that reads as a harbinger for the post that ends up as
number one in this list as it highlight’s the “Yes movement’s” little man Trump
problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/poisoning-wells-of-scottish-politics.html">Poisoning The Wells of Scottish Politics</a></span>” was about the reaction to an article praising Sadiq Khan’s
semi-controversial speech at Scottish Labour’s conference, but the (over)reaction
among Indy fundamentalists overshadowed what Clare Heuchan actually said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Three to go, and
at three is a post looking at “<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/the-bad-tactics-of-indyref-ii.html">The Bad Politics of Indyref 2</a></span>”, as executed by
both parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Essentially the argument
here is that if May had any political nous, she’d give Sturgeon exactly what
she wants – Indyref 2 this autumn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At 2
was a post looking at the Tories ‘<i>out and proud</i>’ pro-Union campaign and their
target seats. “<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/about-that-mandate.html">About That Mandate...</a></span>” asks if what we saw in the Holyrood
Elections would happen again, with the Tories and the Lib Dem’s winning seats
by putting opposition to Indyref 2 front and centre of their respective
campaigns.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">This brings us
to...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well the most read post of 2017.
“<span style="color: #0c343d;"><a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/the-suicide-note-for-yes-movement.html">The Suicide Note For The Yes Movement</a></span>” was inspired by the reaction to Kat
Boyd’s act of hard truth telling on a post election edition of The Sunday
Politics in mid July: that left wing pro-Independence supporters were attracted
to and voted for Corbyn’s Labour (over an SNP that, as has been said ad nausium
here, drifted rightwards) should not have been news to Indy
fundamentalists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What was new was the
casual throwing away of the ‘Yes Coalition’ by what we should describe as Indy
fundamentalists, angry that voters could be ‘tempted’ to vote for a ‘yoon’
party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this post concerned itself
with on-line figureheads of this ‘fundamentalist’ movement – Stuart “Wings”
Campbell & James “Scot Goes Pop” Kelly, it also pre-explained why those
on-line Indy Fundamentalists, and the SNP, have gone after Corbyn’s Labour with
such venom.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">So, that’s yer
lot for 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See you soon for the rest
of 2018.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-48994544637297840252017-12-31T09:00:00.000+00:002017-12-31T09:00:36.105+00:002017: The End of The Third WayAt the start of May this year, many of the Anglo-centric punderati were lauding the rise of the French politician Emanuel Macron, and his election as French President. With very little to zero self awareness, the consensus was that what we needed here in the UK was the emergence of a similar ‘Centrist’ style party and politician. May also saw the twentieth anniversary of, well... the Macron thing happening here. If I’ve pointed out before that the political landscape is now turning against ‘Centraism’ (another new name), Neo-Liberalism or Third Way Politics, then this was the year that this became obvious to... well, even the dumbest of Progress winger.<br /><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilDFMrafZwkvCiMrixJSqNQ5TMdVTsbH03NwGIlyd30vx0NV4yoORzcL7DvN4h_c1wRZhPsb3o4i2PYE49t2noWELFDHgVMGD-nT9Hp7R1wxezjmd-IgGA2wcWyFyX4lvMEGUmp9HJLTU/s1600/May-v-Neil.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilDFMrafZwkvCiMrixJSqNQ5TMdVTsbH03NwGIlyd30vx0NV4yoORzcL7DvN4h_c1wRZhPsb3o4i2PYE49t2noWELFDHgVMGD-nT9Hp7R1wxezjmd-IgGA2wcWyFyX4lvMEGUmp9HJLTU/s400/May-v-Neil.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
While the year began as it ended, with Theresa May in Downing Street. That security of tenancy has become weaker with there now a real possibility of a Corbyn or Corbyn minded government entering Downing Street if this government falls apart. The Civil War within the Labour Party between the ‘moderate’ Progress and the ‘hard’ left Momentum is still ongoing, but is not getting the media exposure it was. The difference between then and now is that election.<br /><br />
Before the election was called, I’d felt that May would not go to the country. She had just sent the letter which triggered Article 50, she had a small but working majority. In short, her timetable would not have the time or space to fight an election. When she called the election, a lot of those pundits rushed to predict 100+ seat majorities for May. I didn’t, partly because it didn’t feel like a 100+ majority election, partly because cut and run elections have a history of not going to plan for the party which call them and partly because May was no Thatcher or MacMillan. Having said that, I still thought a comfortable majority for May would be the outcome. However that was before the most disastrous Conservative election campaign in living memory. The true turning point of the election and the year was the unveiling of the so called ‘Death Tax’, and the subsequent u-turn which drove a coach and horses through “Strong and Stable”. It was this which caused the Tories polling to fall.<br /><br />
The other thing which cost them the election was the much, much better than expected Labour campaign. The deliberately ambiguous but politically astute stance on single market membership, the policy on tuition fees and the promotion of workers’ rights all contributed to Labour’s biggest vote since 2001. For all of this though, Labour still lost. The infighting and the high media profile of Progress wing MP’s banging the anti-Corbyn drum is a part of that, but perhaps more exposure should be shone on Scottish Labour and their reticence to campaign on the Corbyn manifesto. That the Corbyn bounce came late to Scotland could explain why the SNP held off Scottish Labour in 7 seats by a margin of under 2%.<br /><br />
Yet, for all that May and the Conservatives have had a bad year, she is still there in Downing Street. Fear of a Corbyn government is only half of the reason, the other half being that there is not one candidate that looks even like a potential Prime Minister in waiting. Rudd looks the most capable, but is a risk thanks to potential questions about financial probity in her past and her majority in her Hastings & Rye seat being 346. Hammond has too many enemies, while Gove & Johnston should be damaged goods. I did think that had she a bad conference, she’d be gone by now. Well, she did... but the party still rallied around her, for the reasons outlined above. I now think that she’ll be safe for the foreseeable future, or at least until the divorce with the EU is finalised.<br />
<br />
If there was a climate in this country for ‘Centraist’ politics, both Labour and the Tories would not have vacated the centre ground (and seen electoral dividends in doing so). We wouldn’t have seen the fall we have seen in support for the SNP (which we will come to in a minute). But most of all, we would not be seeing the Lib Dem’s essentially on life support. They may have gained four seats in June, with three of them gains from the SNP, but their vote share dropped again. This is in spite of their policy for a second referendum on the EU, this one on the divorce terms, gaining praise among pro-EU commentators. The problem with that is that the likes of the “Sage of Twickenham” and other pro-EU politicians use the comparison of buying a house rather than that of a divorce.<br />
<br />
Cable’s installation as Lib Dem leader following their election disappointment (which saw their previous leader Nick Clegg lose his seat) hinted at Progress level desperation among the Orange Book wing of the Lib Dem’s. What was apparently needed was someone to steady the ship and not make gaffs about homosexuality as Faron did. The problem for the Lib Dem’s though is that people remember the coalition, who felt that a vote for the Lib Dems was not a vote for the Tories.<br />
<br />
The SNP’s problem this year is rooted in their desire for a second Independence referendum and the lack of policy formation out with that target. Since the first Independence referendum, they had moved to the right on key issues, notably on taxation. The performance of Scottish public services began to cause concern among SNP ministers, with the Tory charge that the SNP were neglecting “the day job” hitting home. The SNP’s problem wasn’t that they were neglecting the day job as such, but there was not enough ‘grip’ on the day job, hence the issues with Police Scotland, education and the NHS.<br />
<br />
The election campaign also highlighted that the First Minister is not actually that astute a political strategist; we saw this in several ways. Sturgeon’s high profile in the campaign, for a campaign where she wasn’t standing, invited questions on her government’s performance to be an election issue rather than highlighting her MP’s and their achievements. While the loss of seats, especially those in the North East, could be attributed to Sturgeon’s tying of Independence to EU membership. Scotland’s North East coast was the most eurosceptic part of Scotland in the EU referendum, with Moray seeing the closest vote with 22 votes in it. Remember, because the SNP seem not to have, that 36% of SNP voters in 2015 also voted to leave the EU.<br />
<br />
In the past few months though, the SNP seem to have shown signs of recognising the signs and formulated policies. They are talking about tax rises and investment and a publically owned energy company. They’ve also put talk of so called ‘Indyref 2’ on the back burner. This move is a smart move; however the policy announcements are not. The SNP might recover their political standing in 2018. However, in another example of Sturgeon’s poor political strategy, these policies should have been in the 2016 Holyrood manifesto when the SNP had the political space rather than when the SNP look behind the Corbyn led curve.<br />
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As 2018 looms into view then, the big questions then are thus; will May survive (I think she’ll still be in Downing Street this time next year)? Will we have a second Independence referendum (I don’t see that happening, and possibly not in 2019 either)? And will we have a satisfactory divorce from the European Union (Hmmmm)?<br />
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Before we find out, may I wish you a happy new year and see you in 2018.<br />
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Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-5054315645316338052017-12-11T12:00:00.000+00:002017-12-11T22:57:47.703+00:00The One About The UK City Of Culture<span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>Thursday, 6:30pm, The Library Bar</b></span>: It is the day that the next UK City of Culture is announced, with Paisley up against Coventry, Sunderland, Stoke-On-Trent and Swansea for the honour of succeeding Derry/Londonderry and Hull in hosting this event. The Library Bar is filling up with some of Paisley’s finest... well some of those that hadn’t been invited to the big shindig up the road at the UWS.<br />
<br />
The past couple of days had seen some tension, but it is now palpable with moments away from the announcement. The announcement is live on television, but there is no speeches congratulating the final five or any ceremony. No the announcement is made on BBC One’s ‘The One Show’, a not very good attempt to recreate the BBC’s ‘magazine’ show from the 70’s and early 80’s, Nationwide. With that comes the feeling that this announcement isn’t exactly the centrepiece of the show... and so it proves.<br />
<br />
When the announcement is made, it comes as such an anticlimax that you had to pinch yourself that they’d made it before asking yourself ‘<i>did he just say Coventry</i>’, or if you were out of earshot and caught by surprise (and let’s be honest, The One Show handled the thing like SPOTY handles Scottish Football) ‘<i>what did he say?</i>’. What that anti-climatic feeling did do though was act as a buffer, cushioning the disappointment. When that disappointment came, it was tempered with a sober realisation and didn’t come as crushing. I am of course speaking for myself, and probably quite a few people in that pub. At the UWS shindig and in Hull (where the announcement was made), feelings may have been sharper and the sense of disappointment more immediate and raw.<br />
<br />
Of course, congratulations should be given to Coventry. Like Paisley, an area struggling to re-define itself in the age of Globalisation with a cultural heritage. The birthplace of Phillip Larkin, Lee Child and the home of Two Tone records – the first successful ‘Indie’ record label (even if distribution was, I think, done through Chrysalis) and conversely the first ‘Indie’ number ones (The Special’s “To Much Too Young” in February 1980, followed by the iconic “Ghost Town” 15 months later). It is a city which is as deserving of the award as we would have been.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycj3Dar3fUeiZSPP4uFGcxPXxALRO-jXl6xvfDWoo_fQUqKQ-5tRJReH-iARrvkEXIY4KX17UIGoCa_4FUAkHujXtDbPtXZ2hqUCbV4n3_2BUFJA_QaiClc_S8Ey22tBceillNl_ytuU/s1600/P1020384.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycj3Dar3fUeiZSPP4uFGcxPXxALRO-jXl6xvfDWoo_fQUqKQ-5tRJReH-iARrvkEXIY4KX17UIGoCa_4FUAkHujXtDbPtXZ2hqUCbV4n3_2BUFJA_QaiClc_S8Ey22tBceillNl_ytuU/s400/P1020384.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>Paisley 2021's Jean Cameron hands over the final City of Culture bid <br />document, 29 September 2017 </i></span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
<span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>Sunday, 9pm</b></span>: On the Thursday night, I had put up a post on social media, congratulating Coventry but also paying tribute to the Paisley 2021 team and also saying that a lot of the things happening in Paisley (the plans for the “Baker Street” cultural quarter, the Spree, the Mod) were all things happening independently of the bid – these were not things contingent on the success of the bid. With 72 hours hindsight, there’s nothing which has changed that view. If anything, the mindset that is now showing is the mindset of it being a setback but not the end of the world. That mindset can only be commended.<br />
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The only thing which is bothering me is the question at the root of Thursday night. Why did we lose? In what way was Coventry’s bid superior to our bid? Did they have a better bid, or did we do something to lose it? Or were we the victim of outside forces? Like with UK cities now being expelled from bidding for the European Capital of Culture, did our bid fall foul of the power play between the governments in Westminster and Holyrood?<br />
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My own view, as someone with zero experience of bidding for arts & cultural events, is that this was a bid that was not lost by us. The bid team, led by the effervescent Jean Cameron, have created a buzz around a town that not that long ago was a backwater and a joke. I remember vividly my former partner bemoaning the fact that there was nothing in Paisley and that it was dying on its backside, so remembering Paisley at a low point is relatively recent history.<br />
<br />
It may have been Derek MacKay who bid (successfully) to bring the MOD to Paisley and it may have been his (Labour) successor Mark McMillan who sanctioned the setting up of the inaugural Spree festival (which ran concurrently with that MOD in October 2013). It was certainly under McMillan that Renfrewshire Council decided to bid forthe City of Culture. Both figures are people who I have criticised on these pages in the past. But here, they deserve praise as both the MOD and the Spree can with some justification be seen as the starting point of Paisley’s comeback.<br />
<br />
However, returning to the bid. To my untrained eye, I don’t think there’s very much else the bid could have done. From the art installation ‘Pride of lions’ to the dispatch of the final bid there has been a gently choreographed building of a buzz around the bid. Yet whilst the things happening in Paisley were independent of the bid and it’s success, they were stimulated by the bid. I am sure that in the fullness of time the DCMS team tasked with making this decision will explain their decision, I do hope they do.<br />
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In the meantime, plans are rightly continuing within Paisley with new events and plans being announced on Twitter alongside the hash-tag <i>#ourjourneycontinues</i>. For all that Thursday was a disappointment, that Paisley, City of Culture has a ring to it and that the Paisley 2021 bid team deserve every bit of credit going their way. It only represents the end of the first chapter in Paisley’s revitalisation, nothing more.Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-71830304393055302352017-11-13T13:00:00.000+00:002017-11-13T13:00:05.601+00:00The Day TodayWhen someone becomes an ex-leader, there are normally two ways things can go. There is the back seat driver route, favoured by Thatcher and Blair. Most leaders though tend to follow the line unwittingly defined by John Major when he left Downing Street for the last time as PM in May 1997. “<i>When the curtain falls it is best to leave the stage</i>”.<br />
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There is, of course, now the third way, the way which Alex Salmond is now pioneering which rejects the concept of the ‘elder statesman’.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXksh-bi3OYy60ktyVJHcGKld8jtPJcpBvaOfokYQXmfPJ2DuyVkBnur6mgG_EROe3KmbBAWxMa-mcXR1zUKWdXRJCTxIUPXW7vg1rjO_MPC1rSIDVcln6OUb2w-Gd5GPKsVIQLgTrBPI/s1600/salmondpa_98696743_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="660" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXksh-bi3OYy60ktyVJHcGKld8jtPJcpBvaOfokYQXmfPJ2DuyVkBnur6mgG_EROe3KmbBAWxMa-mcXR1zUKWdXRJCTxIUPXW7vg1rjO_MPC1rSIDVcln6OUb2w-Gd5GPKsVIQLgTrBPI/s400/salmondpa_98696743_.jpg" width="400" /></a>We have seen Mr Salmond again in the news this week, having signed up to produce and front a political chat show for the notorious (in UK media circles anyway) news ‘organisation’ Russia Today. For some people this has not gone down very well. By all accounts, the First Minister herself is not said to be happy about this<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>. The critics do have a point.<br />
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Of sorts.<br />
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For someone who professes to be a democrat and to wish to uphold democratic values, it is not a good look to be providing content for a news organisation whose reputation is of essentially a 21st century Pravda. The charge against Russia Today is that they are essentially the mouthpiece of Putin and his government. While it is true that Salmond’s moves are disdainful, the phrase about glasshouses and stones comes to mind. Various Westminster MP’s have appeared on Russia Today as talking heads, most recently the ‘<i>Sage of Twickenham</i>’ Vince Cable. If Russia Today was that bad, shouldn’t they have declined their invites? Similarly there is little mention of Jeremy Corbyn’s appearances on various middle eastern news channels (he apparently has a slot on Iranian news).<br />
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Any mention of news channels dressing up fake news brings to mind another news channel, one rarely mentioned either by critics of Russia Today or by supporters of Salmond (who see this as another excuse to indulge in the tiresome sport of BBC bashing). Fox News before it was pulled from our screens by its parent company was recently charged with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/u-k-regulator-cites-fox-news-for-breaching-broadcast-standards">two counts of biased reporting</a>. With this in mind, and the fact that Fox was the network that claimed that Birmingham was ‘<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/sep/21/ofcom-criticises-fox-news-for-calling-birmingham-no-go-zone-for-non-muslims">a no go area for non-Muslims</a>’, then you do wonder where the (equally deserved) brickbats are for regular UK based Fox contributors and general Trump/TEA Party sympathisers like the MEP’s Daniel Hannan and, err... Nigel Farage.<br />
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The thing that most people commenting on Salmond’s career turn have missed is that Alex Salmond doesn’t really care what people think. I’m not sure he wants to be that kind of elder statesman like (god preserve us) Paddy Ashdown or John Major. Certainly Salmond’s ego would never ever allow him to all but disappear from public view like his predecessors in Bute House, Jack McConnell and Henry McLeish, have done (save from the occasional appearance). Salmond, for better or for worse, still thinks he has an active part to play in the discourse of this country. It explains his behaviour relating to accepting the offer to provide content to Russia Today (an outlet substantially more ‘favourable’ to the concept of Scottish Independence than any UK based broadcaster) and it explains his bid to be put onto the board of Johnston Press, the owners of the Edinburgh newspaper ‘The Scotsman’.<br />
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If Salmond genuinely wanted to be a grandee in the style of Winnie Ewing, then his reputation as a serious figure in that mould would have been damaged long before this episode with Russia Today. Granted, he became an MP again after sparking a feud with Nick Robinson at the end of the Independence Referendum campaign and by continuing to play the BBC Bias card (whereas in truth, the real instance of BBC bias has been against Corbyn and his Momentum acolytes, it is a lot more blatant than any perceived ‘anti-SNP’ bias).<br />
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I think that the moment that guaranteed that Salmond’s career as a serious political figure was over was the series of shows at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival in August. Serious political figures do not diminish themselves and turn themselves into vaudevillian entertainers. And serious political figures do not make <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond-under-fire-over-sexist-joke-during-fringe-show-1-4531992">bad, vaguely sexist, jokes</a> that even Bruce Forsyth would have baulked at making. Yet Salmond seems not to have learned the lessons of history by pressing ahead with his no holds barred show. The only other leader to have tried a career in television after leaving office was Harold Wilson, who had a very short stint hosting “Friday Night, Saturday Morning” in the autumn of 1979. From the clips I’d seen (I think when BBC 2 did it’s TV Hell night in the mid 90’s) it wasn’t that great and also showed us the first visible sign of Wilson’s Alzheimer’s.<br />
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Wilson’s reputation took a knock, but partly due to us better understanding Alzheimer’s now, and partly because of a general reappraisal of Wilson’s time in Downing Street (if you’ve seen Steve Richard’s “Leadership Reflections” monologues – which I reference when talking about the political space to hold Indyref 2 – then the Wilson programme is fascinating in that respect) his reputation is recovering. Unlike Wilson, Salmond commands respect across his party. His issue is that he is seen as a divisive figure across the political spectrum. His deft handling of the first administration is all but forgotten.<br />
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The assumption across the mac-commentariat was that Salmond would retire and become some sort of avuncular elder statesman figure. Think a Scottish Tony Benn. If that was the case, they’ve underestimated Salmond’s ego and its capacity to override any political pragmatism he may have by showing a liking for growing older disgracefully. Alongside the shows, the chatshow is a vehicle for Salmond's ego in the face of unfinished business, nothing more.Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-82125149702320243762017-11-06T13:00:00.000+00:002017-11-06T13:00:15.350+00:00Waiting For MomentumNothing perhaps tells us more about the reduced circumstances of ‘Scottish’ Labour than the fact that the current leadership election is firmly background noise to other, bigger issues which are dominating the news. With sex-pestery dominating the headlines (and please please, can we not call it sleaze even if it’s called that with more justification here than during the 1990’s) this is an election battle coming to a conclusion in the next week or so.<br /><br />
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As I’d pinpointed when Dugdale resigned, the favourite is Labour’s current health spokesman Anas Sarwar. There was a point in September when his campaign looked terminally holed under the line when revelations surfaced about the family business he held shares in. In short, a millionaire owner of a business which did not pay its workers the minimum wage was not a good look for a prospective leader of a party committed to workers rights and a equalitarian agenda. Alongside the question of sending his children to a fee paying school – a question which dogged Blair in his early days as Labour leader and it also led to Harman leaving the shadow cabinet – this painted Sarwar’s campaign as a doomed campaign.<br /><br />
There is also the suspicion that there are also people who have signed up to become members to just vote for Sarwar, with the insinuation that these are Scots-Asians who are influenced by the Sarwar’s standing in their own community. It’s not as if there are people signing up just to vote for Leonard, are there... err...<br /><br />
As it happens Sarwar’s campaign has been far from doomed. In the television debates between the two men, Sarwar has bested Leonard in all of them. He has put his ideas across very well and in one of the debates went on the attack over Leonard’s (perceived) non-commitment to keep Scotland in the single market. In sharp contrast, the supposed ‘Corbynista’ candidate, Richard Leonard, has looked leaden footed and rather slow witted. The only really difference between the two candidates is essentially how both have performed, and that in itself is somewhat disappointing.<br /><br />
Part of the reason for the similarity in the two is Sarwar’s adoption of Corbyn style taxation policies – he promises to put taxes up for the wealthy whilst cutting it for low paid workers. There are parts of this which is appealing and worthy of debate. It has also provoked the response from the SNP that they are the true progressive party of Scotland (any response should make the point that they refused to be this radical when they had the opportunity to be so in 2016, therefore the SNP’s rediscovery of a revolutionary zeal should be seen with the timid & conservative 2016 manifesto in mind). The other SNP announcement is to... err... preannounce an intention to have a debate on taxation with the SNP minded to put taxes up.<br /><br />
The other reason is that I’d suspect, as I pointed out earlier when Dugdale resigned, that the timing of Dugdale’s departure unintentionally hindered the pro-Momentum branch of Scottish Labour. If there was a plot to oust Dugdale, I’d suspect that they were not ready or prepared for a leadership battle this autumn. If they were, we wouldn’t have seen so much focus on tax policy, which brings me to my point.<br /><br />
Given that both Sarwar and Leonard have focused so much on tax increases, there is shockingly little thought on why taxes need to go up. Two years ago, when I responded to Chris Deering’s “<a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yup-scotland-has-gone-mad-but.html">Scotland Has Gone Mad</a>” piece, I made the point that both the SNP & Scottish Labour had retreated towards a lazy form of Social Democracy where indiscriminate tax rises are somehow seen as “Socialist”. As if to prove my point, Dugdale’s flagship policy at last years Holyrood election was a rise in taxes because “it was the progressive thing to do”. Sadly both Sarwar and Leonard have fallen straight into this trap.<br /><br />
That’s not to say that there shouldn’t be a debate about taxation, especially with those new taxation toys that are Holyrood bound. There is a gaping hole here though, public service reforms. The sort of reforms that it now looks like the SNP is not interested in making, eschewing that for the prize of Independence. It’s a pity as I suspect that their timidity quite possibly cost them votes in 2016. From Scottish Labour’s point of view, the reforms they should be thinking big about are schools and the NHS.<br /><br />
Schools, because the Curriculum for Excellence does not look like it is working. Michael Russell’s reforms is still proving cumbersome for teachers to facilitate properly while there have been several reports highlighting the falling standards of Scottish education. While with Health there are the failures to reach targets. Locally though there are concerns about the management at the arms length Greater Glasgow Health Board and their high profile decision to close the Children’s ward at Paisley’s Royal Alexandria Hospital. The truth is though that this proposal is the tip of the iceberg as far as GGHB’s management of the RAH has been concerned. There have been a number of services that have been downgraded at the RAH, some of them have been down to the new Southern General hospital in Glasgow’s south-side being given preferential treatment for services.<br /><br />
If the SNP have botched reform of Education, then this is ripe to be put right. Health is also ripe for reform. It is here where there should be a focus not in pouring resources indiscriminately in but on a SWOT analysis of what needs fixing and how it can be fixed. Given that any time I’ve been in the RAH the frontline staff have been nothing other than excellent, I’d start with management and Health Board structures. Democratise the health boards, cut back on representation from the ‘professional board member’ classes and in the ranks of NHS managers and go from there.<br /><br />
It is not just in the promised radical policies that we are still waiting for Momentum, but in the kind of firebrand leadership needed to facilitate those policies and that kind of politics. Instead the candidate of the left in this election is not unlike Corbyn himself, okay at speeches but with question marks over his abilities as a leader. Sarwar might be continuity Dugdale – with all the baggage over Independence and a closeness to the pro-Blair Progress that these bring – but in spite of the disastrous start to his campaign he still looks like the marginal favourite to win. Just.<br />
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Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-62146483643501057272017-10-02T13:00:00.000+01:002017-10-02T19:17:44.290+01:00How Long Has May Got Left in Downing Street?A couple of weeks ago, the Independent’s John Rentoul tweeted that he thought that of the two main Party leaders, May would last longer than Corbyn. Rather surprisingly, I can see circumstances where this could happen.<br />
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If this parliament lasts for the full term, I can see some sort of succession planning kick in, in around three years time. Labour would therefore be fighting the next election with a younger, more telegenic and nimble footed prospective prime minister that is also Corbyn minded (Rayner & Thornberry being the two most likely successors at this moment). On the other hand the Tories still have May, and that is their problem.<br />
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When Cameron resigned and May took over, my thought was that May would be an upgrade on Cameron. She was, I’d reasoned, someone who would not take unnecessary risks and would understand the need for a return to consensus politics. In short, she was an upgrade on Cameron. Instead May’s reputation disappeared over the course of a badly run and badly argued election campaign. In any other times, May would have been forced to resign as PM and a successor would have been installed, someone able to command the confidence of the house. What last year’s leadership election showed was that the list of leadership hopefuls looked like a rather threadbare list, it is possibly for this reason that May has not been forced out.<br />
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Instead of forcing out May, the Tories are I think waiting for someone to emerge who they feel can adequately lead the party and appeal to the country. Some of those talked of are either back benchers (Rees-Mogg junior) or junior ministers (Raab), it is surprising how much of the so called big beasts are being ignored and that “jumping a generation” is now back in vogue, given the last time the Tories jumped a generation we got Cameron. The exception to looking at younger leaders being Boris ‘Boom Boom’ Johnston, but then again he has been somewhat on manoeuvres.<br />
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It would of course be all well and good if May recognised the new diminished position that she and her party find themselves in. Instead, May still believes the ‘Strong & Stable’ mantra which made her a figure of fun in the spring. She and her party still hanker after being the party to provide “the firm smack of government” as they did in the 80’s. When they had 100 odd seat majorities and had the political space to do so. Indeed the Thatcher that the Tories hanker after only emerged between the Falklands and the 1983 Election – the start of her imperial phase. She was a more cautious PM when she ‘only’ had a majority of 44, even if her radical monetarist policies were still being implemented.<br />
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Perceived wisdom in the aftermath of the election was that May would see out the EU divorce proceedings before stepping aside. However, against the spirit of her speech to her backbenchers the week after the election, May has since said repeatedly that she intends to serve a full term and fight the next election, much to the horror of the Tory party strategists and some in her party. This brings us to the question posed in the title and the importance of this week.<br />
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May’s position is that she is essentially living month to month as PM, she is as close to borrowed time as she can possibly get. If she has a good conference and gives a good speech on Wednesday then it gives her some space to carry on. Some. And certainly not a licence to act as if five years is a certainty (which it most certainly is not). However, politically, she needs to be contrite and show that she is adapting to the changed political landscape. She also needs to deal with Boris, but a politically smart operator would have dealt with him already and not given him carte blanche to do what he pleased as he pleased. Of course, it’s possible that Boris’ aim is to be sacked and therefore to avoid being blamed for bringing down May. “He who wields the knife never becomes leader” and all that. “Friends of Boris” (if he has any after his various affairs and is not some made up pseudonym for Boris) would be failing in their duty to let Boris know that maybe it’s too late for that and that any rugby balls that pop out of the scrum certainly won’t be falling at his feet.<br />
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If the week goes badly for May, she’ll be gone by Christmas. Simple as. This is the party which took 24 days to oust its most successful leader of the 20th Century and PM for 11 years. Once they turn against May, she won’t be around for long. If she is gone within the next couple of months, I’d expect David Davis to be the successful stop Boris candidate, and successful in stopping Boris. This is the new reality for the Tories, the fragility of May’s position. Her cold curtness surprisingly makes you pine for Cameron’s ‘sunlit upland’s’ guff.<br />
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The new reality for May is that she is the PM in the most precarious position since James Callaghan in the late 70’s. The big difference is that Callaghan only had to worry about Commons votes (his party only became bitterly divided after election defeat). May also has to navigate a party still angry at throwing away a 12 seat majority, unconvinced of her performance as leader but not convinced of the alternatives. It is remarkable that the party are still minded to leave May in her position. This week will be the first major test of that balance since the Election. By the end of this week we will be in a better position to answer the question posed in the title of this blog.Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-85107600168664612392017-09-26T12:00:00.000+01:002017-09-26T17:09:24.300+01:00The Most Dangerous Phrase in UK PoliticsYou know that there are phrases which reveal something about a persons thinking – a laziness even when some sort of conventional wisdom is dispensed by several commentators at the one time. However since the election, we’ve seen a response to that result which can be summed up in one phrase. It’s a phrase that can be justified as being the most dangerous phrase in UK politics at this moment.<br />
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One more push.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjJ6ov2QWOJNNQ5BqQFb3GxG8gU9Q5An7uLwWunkmjLs3WP8J7TlpAieLybnpKvjO7d5_l5HJtQQMJ1yuZQ2GlSwpn-yKGy2cl5QHwZvp86imWXIMxUF_cutXIlnk7BLXga3Qo28gvbFU/s1600/McDonnell-Labour.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjJ6ov2QWOJNNQ5BqQFb3GxG8gU9Q5An7uLwWunkmjLs3WP8J7TlpAieLybnpKvjO7d5_l5HJtQQMJ1yuZQ2GlSwpn-yKGy2cl5QHwZvp86imWXIMxUF_cutXIlnk7BLXga3Qo28gvbFU/s400/McDonnell-Labour.jpg" width="400" /></a>It’s a phrase that Labour leftists and Corbynistas have used in their conversations about what to do next. That is that all that Labour need to do is to make one more push and Corbyn will be the next (or next but one if the Tories change leader before the next Election) occupant of Downing Street. It is tempting to see UK politics through that particular prism, as notably Rebecca Long-Bailey (pictured left, with Corbyn & McDonnell) did at the weekend. It would also be an incorrect and potentially damaging prospectus.<br />
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Here in Scotland, we have seen the damage that such a complacent view can do. I barely need to remind you of the outcome of the Independence referendum of September 2014. Rather than see the outcome of a loss by 10.6% as simply a defeat, supporters of Independence... indeed the SNP hierarchy as a whole saw the result and the gains made as a reason to carry on with their arguments. The logic here is that if the arguments stacked up for 44 odd % of the country then all that’s needed is to keep with those arguments.<br />
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Of course things haven’t quite worked out that way. The SNP’s refusal to look at the defeat in 2014 to see what lessons can be learned smacks of arrogance. The thing that looks to have done for Independence though (at least in the short to medium term anyway) has been the SNP’s continued bad handling of EU relations. In rushing to put Independence on to a virtual table in the aftermath of the EU referendum, the SNP hierarchy may have been listening to what their supporters within the social media bubble had been saying, but out in the real world it was a move which looks with each passing day like a catastrophic tactical blunder.<br />
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Labour, on the other hand, are in a slightly different place from the SNP and Yes Scotland. For one thing, their loss could not be attributed to issues with policy, the performance of their leader or the economy. The thing that very likely cost them votes in June would be the 18 month civil war within Labour between the party’s left wing and it’s pro-Blair Progress group. At a Progress fringe meeting, the right wing Scottish Labour spokesperson Jackie Baillie made the point that “<i>We lost the general election against the most shambolic Tory campaign I’ve ever seen – we can’t get away from that</i>” without acknowledging the role that Progress minded MP’s played in undermining the public perception of their leader. Or for that matter the shambolic Scottish Labour election campaign which completely ignored Corbyn’s policies in favour of promoting, to borrow a phrase, ‘local champions’ and for trying to out Tory the Tories on the constitution. It is therefore somewhat dispiriting to see both candidates for Scottish Labour leader make this mistake. Again.<br />
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If the momentum (ho ho!) is with Labour, then that does not make them automatic shoo-ins at the next election. For one thing there are policy area’s that need tightened up. I’m not certain that O’Donnell’s grasp of the economy is as tight as it needs to be. I think Labour’s Brexit strategy has the look of being cobbled together by committee and should be a much sturdier compromise between retaining trade links, protecting freedom of movement and ensuring we leave the EU and it’s centralising undemocratic tendencies. I also think Diane Abbott needs to step up to the plate a bit more and show us all that she is a capable Home Secretary in waiting.<br />
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There is one policy area where there is a lot of work needing to be done – Scotland. It was Labour politicians (Progress wingers mind, but still...) who thwarted attempts by the SNP to fully devolve Benefits to Holyrood during the Smith Commission negotiations and it was Progress wing Labour MP’s who voted down SNP amendments during the resulting Scotland Act’s passage through the HOC. For Corbyn to say that Holyrood has all the powers that the SNP asked for is an out and out lie.<br /><br />
There are criticisms that can be made of the SNP government, their timid policymaking, their lack of grip in the act of government and their fiscal conservatism – Sturgeon may talk the talk but so far she’s not walking the walk. Instead the criticisms that Scottish Labour and Corbyn are making are as the SNP as facilitators of Tory austerity. This is an argument that does not stand up to scrutiny.<br />
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Why Labour are attacking the SNP lies with the results of June’s election and the SNP’s own collapse, which itself handed Scottish Labour a way back. Of the 64 seats Labour need to win, 18 are SNP held. Seven of those seats are highly vulnerable, with swings needed of under 1% to take those super marginal’s. My own MP, Mhari Black, is vulnerable at a swing of just over 3% while the winning line, the seat that would (if Labour take all the other 63 seats) put Corbyn into Downing Street would be Lisa Cameron’s East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow seat. The swing needed for that to happen is the entirely achievable 3.5% (in sharp contrast, the Tories need 8 seats, and a swing of 0.25% to regain a working majority). It is why Labour need to frankly get better arguments and why the right candidate in the current leadership election for Scottish Labour needs to emerge and why it is now time for Scottish Labour to stop obsessing about an event (Indyref 2) that will not be happening any time soon. Scottish Labour’s leadership election is subject I will be returning to.<br />
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Momentum & Corbynism is a by-product of the collapse of The Third Way. However as the example of the last “mass movement” of UK politics showed, a failure is still a failure and issues will need to be re-examined and adjustments made. If the Tories are not to get away with their mismanagement then Labour simply cannot afford to make the same mistake that the “Yes” movement and the SNP made and carry on in the mistaken belief that ‘one more push’ will see ‘us’ over the line.<br />
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<br />Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-71978779325030101582017-09-19T14:00:00.000+01:002017-09-19T14:00:25.481+01:00The Party Who’s Moment Has Passed<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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18th... 19th September. I’m sure I should be blogging about something, hmmmm.<br /><br />I’m certainly not going to write about Independence, there is nothing else that can be said at the moment about a movement which seems intent on fighting an unwinnable fight, the Tommy Sheridan tribute parade at the weekend changes precisely nothing. If the SNP think that belittling ‘No’ supporters (hint: A key rule in politics is to not belittle potential voters, even if you disagree with their decision the last time) and that 62% of Scots voted to sign up to Jean Claude Junker’s vision of a United States of Europe 15 months ago will lead to an Independent Scotland, then they’re seriously up faeces valley.<br /><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0UW3YAl2sYwIq13_1PI6HyCikrERoE9z3_14O7kFxKxpU5lZjn807ffN9Z7MMlg_Q-FjosjOpApPljj2H0tEd3To11WJm-TzqXC_xmn3DaU8BY-5B65iwHfXiwh41edRBVxNTT-DCrwg/s1600/vince-cable-Lib+Dem.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0UW3YAl2sYwIq13_1PI6HyCikrERoE9z3_14O7kFxKxpU5lZjn807ffN9Z7MMlg_Q-FjosjOpApPljj2H0tEd3To11WJm-TzqXC_xmn3DaU8BY-5B65iwHfXiwh41edRBVxNTT-DCrwg/s400/vince-cable-Lib+Dem.jpg" width="400" /></a>Instead of that, or Wales (because I’m not Welsh so don’t really have a viable perspective on their assembly referendum 20 years ago) I’m going to talk about this small party on the brink of political oblivion. It’s the Lib Dem’s conference this week and while it feels like a lifetime ago, it was only two and a bit years ago they were in government. They did have a small but modest recovery in June’s election with a net gain of four seats from 2015. Their problem though is that their moment has now gone and that they don’t really know where to go next.<br /><br />
In the 90’s under Ashdown they presented themselves as a liberal centre ground party, but that was before Blair & New Labour came along and defined ‘Centraism’ in a post Thatcherite political landscape. When Charles Kennedy succeeded Ashdown, he pursued a policy of equidistance from both parties. This policy and New Labour’s movement to the right made the Lib Dem’s appear to be the most left wing of all the main parties. There were rumours that this turn of events did not go down well with Ashdown and his friends that were still in the party at the time.<br /><br />
By the time Kennedy was forced out of the Lib Dem leadership, there was an alternative viewpoint to the Kennedy ‘SDP’ line being formulated. These views and ideas coalesced around the so called Orange Book – a book of essays and think pieces advocating a Lib Dem version of Third way neo-liberalism edited by David Laws and featuring pieces by newly elected MP’s Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg. In this respect, a coalition between a Lib Dem party led by an Orange Booker, such as Clegg, and the Blair influenced Cameron & Osborne should have looked like a highly likely prospect in the event of a hung parliament. And so that passed.<br /><br />
The problem for the Lib Dem’s is that thanks to those Orange Bookers, their moment in the sun passed with very little in the way of influence. There are two policies that they can point at with justification as being Lib Dem policies, but they are intrinsically Tory minded policies. The first is the policy of raising the tax threshold at the bottom of the wage structure – cutting taxes being a Conservative aspiration. The other Tory aspiration is the cutting of regulation therefore the reforms to Pension regulations fits nicely into that narrative. Other than that, their reputation is of being doormat’s in the face of Tory attacks on.<br /><br />
Fast forward to the election of 2017 and we see that the Lib Dem’s have a very real problem. Since they lost almost 50 seats in the 2015 election, there has been a cleaving of the political landscape. Labour has hit the reset button – to much resistance from their own Neo-Liberal wing –and are in the process of re-emerging as a party of the left once more. The Tories are also in the process of resetting themselves as a party of the right, with the issue of leadership a piece in their jigsaw still to be placed (among other pieces still in the box). The Lib Dem’s remain as a resolutely pro-EU pro-Centre ground party at a time when both standpoints are not popular.<br /><br />
You would have thought that the Lib Dem’s pledge for a second EU referendum, to ratify the terms of divorce would have proved to be a popular policy given that just under half of the country voted to remain within the EU. Apparently not if the small increases in seats is anything to go by. Indeed, any examination of the seats gained would leave us to wonder what would have happened to the Lib Dem’s if they weren’t the beneficiaries of the SNP’s own poor campaign. As a result, a campaign which saw net gains (but below what was clearly expected) saw the Lib Dem’s force out their own leader within a week of the June election.<br /><br />
Farron’s replacement is the man formally known as the Sage of Twickenham, Vince Cable (above). The man who keeps telling us he saw the financial crash coming, even though those in the know (like for example, my ex) saw it coming as well. It’s just they didn’t have media profile or a natty line in juxtaposing Mr Bean and Stalin within witty repartee. For a politician who is intent in recasting himself as a keeper of the liberal flame, he has a hell of a lot of work to do to rebuild his own reputation. Never mind his party’s fortunes.<br /><br />
As the Business Secretary, he caved in to the Taxpayers Alliance’s campaign to scrap the consumer regulator, Consumer Focus, and sanctioned the scrapping of the act which gave it the statutory powers it had, dumping them on the near charity Citizens Advice Bureau. Cable also sanctioned the across the board slashing of regulations, including building and health & safety regulations. Many on the left and some Lib Dem’s tried to pin the scrapping of regulations which (it is alleged) led to the Grenfell fire on Sajid Javed. In truth it was Cable which sanctioned this.<br /><br />
With both Labour and the Tories looking to reset themselves and so called ‘centralists’ on both sides looking to set up a new party entirely rather than swap parties, the Lib Dem’s look more and more lost and irrelevant. Cable and Willie Rennie’s claims that power for them is around the corner would be laughable if it wasn’t made seriously. Clegg might have taken the Lib Dem’s into power, but as they gather in Bournemouth this week that decision to sup with the devil looks more and more like a turning point in the history of the Liberal Democrats. <br />
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Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-26450112919000729932017-09-11T13:00:00.000+01:002017-09-11T13:00:25.571+01:00Devolution Britain At 20We seem to be going through a phase at the moment where we are seeing all sorts of nostalgia for 1997. A couple of weeks ago we saw various reminiscences of the most famous drink driving car crash in history, while last week BBC Parliament repeated 1997’s other so called ‘JFK’ moment. Including the moment that has given it’s name to all subsequent high profile electoral casualties at the moment of defeat – the Portillo moment. We have also seen people revisit, thanks to an appearance at Glastonbury in June, Radiohead’s critically acclaimed/criminally overrated (delete where appropriate) album from that year.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT15mtN81xKTfleIprMs8ISbZdypFz94WMAMze8Q-MIH45Qr8So9g2onlHwBqCIIVR_2RqJc9ex8ZQA9aLcRSWKwL7ci6l3dq2EMe0q-5lkxUF9a7X4F5sWjZKactcD2BZtRIgWUBmKqY/s1600/Blair-Dewar-McConnell.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="700" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT15mtN81xKTfleIprMs8ISbZdypFz94WMAMze8Q-MIH45Qr8So9g2onlHwBqCIIVR_2RqJc9ex8ZQA9aLcRSWKwL7ci6l3dq2EMe0q-5lkxUF9a7X4F5sWjZKactcD2BZtRIgWUBmKqY/s400/Blair-Dewar-McConnell.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Blair, Dewar and McConnell greet pro-devolution supporters in Edinburgh's Parliament<br />Square, post result: Friday 12 September 1997</span></span></i></td></tr>
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One moment that seems to have evaded the nostalgists, except for viewers in Scotland (of course), is the moment where devolution began to be made flesh. Twenty years on from those twin referendum’s it is forgotten how controversial they were. But then again, there is an awful lot that is forgotten about the development of what became the Scottish Parliament.<br />
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Labour were of course, late converters to the Devolution cause. Seeing it more as something to stymie the rise in support for the SNP in the aftermath of the two General Elections in 1974, Labour then put together and proposed assemblies in Wales and Scotland. Both were put to their respective electorates in the winter of 1979, but with the campaign taking place among the backdrop of the so called ‘Winter of Discontent’ it’s debatable if the climate was conducive to a positive outcome. As a result the Welsh proposals were dismissed by their electorate. The Scottish assembly won by 51.6% to 48.6%. However thanks to a key intervention by the Islington (Labour) MP George Cunningham who successfully got his motion passed (on of all days, Burns Night 1978) stating that if less than 40% of the electorate voted yes then this ‘Scotland Act’ should be brought back to parliament for repeal. At 63.8% turnout, that 51.6% vote looked more like a third of the Scottish electorate and failed the 40% rule. The ensuing arguments brought about the fall of the Callaghan government within four weeks of the Assembly referendum and a resulting General Election which provided Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives with a 44 seat majority.<br />
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As Thatcher’s brand of Friedman/Hayek inspired Monetarism became more and more toxic here in Scotland, devolution gradually came back into fashion. A cross party, cross society, constitutional convention was set up in the late 80’s. The only people who did not contribute was the Scottish Tories, who instantly set their face against devolution, and the SNP, who at that point did not see a roadmap to Independence through devolution. It is strange to remember that the SNP spent most of the 80’s and 90’s disdainfully dismissing devolution. When Labour eventually won, and it became clear that there would be a referendum campaign, the SNP were wise to set aside their misgivings and campaign for a Scottish parliament.<br />
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Ah, the referendum. As the late Donald Dewar observed, the Scottish Parliament had become the settled will of the Scottish people by the time Blair had succeeded the late John Smith. It was therefore a shock and a surprise to see that Blair intended to hold twin referendums on both the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. As Blair pointed out in his book though, this was a tactic designed to make the passage through parliament easier, not to thwart the desires of the Scottish People – “<i>As the legislation to devolve trundled through Westminster, I knew the only way we could avoid the trap that previous governments had fallen into was to negate the possibility of the legislation being sabotaged by the House of Lords... The tactic was obvious: get the people to say yes, then the lords could not say no</i>.”<br />
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At the time though, this tactic went above some people as it became rather controversial and somewhat set the template of Blair’s opinion of us. Being Scottish, going to school here and being brought up here, Blair felt like an alien in his own country, thanks in no small thanks to our own inferiority sensibility, or as he put it our chipiness. The other thought I had at the time was that this was Labour laying to rest some ghosts from 1979. In the event, Blair’s election in the May of 1997 meant that there would be significant changes to the UK constitution and that those twin referendum were now pencilled in for the 11th and the 18th September 1997.<br />
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If memory serves, it was all too obvious that we would vote for a Scottish Parliament. There were two areas where there was some doubt. The second question on the ballot paper was on whether the parliament should have tax varying powers. Pre-Indyref and pre-Calman, the original proposals were that the tax raising powers only extended to 3% difference either way. There was doubt over whether this proposal would gain approval from the Scottish electorate. The other doubt being that campaigning was essentially curtailed for a week thanks to the death of Diana in that aforementioned accident. We’ve since had campaigning curtailed by the death of Jo Cox and terrorist incidents in Manchester and London but this was the first time that campaigning was suspended in this way. The worry was whether and how would this impact on voting. In the end we shouldn’t have worried.<br />
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr align="center"><td valign="top" width="586">Scottish Devolution Referendum, 11 September 1997</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top" width="331"></td><td valign="top" width="132">Yes</td><td valign="top" width="123">No</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top" width="331">Should there be A Scottish Parliament?</td><td valign="top" width="132">1,775,045 (74.3%)</td><td valign="top" width="123">614,200 (25.7%)</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top" width="331">Should the Scottish Parliament have tax varying powers?</td><td valign="top" width="132">1,512,889 (63.5%)</td><td valign="top" width="123">870,263 (36.5%)</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top" width="331">Turnout 60.43%</td><td valign="top" width="132"></td><td valign="top" width="123"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Now, looking back at that referendum, there are two thoughts that occur. The first is that while we wouldn’t want to get rid of the Scottish Parliament, there is an element of disappointment about the Scottish Parliament as a radical transformative force. Say what you like about Scottish Labour (and I’d generally agree with you) but at least they can point at some sort of legacy. Donald Dewar scrapped Clause 28, in the teeth of vicious opposition from home-grown religious fundamentalists. Henry McLeish brought in Free Care for the Elderly, in the teeth of opposition from his own party. The longest lasting of Labour’s three First Ministers, Jack McConnell brought in the smoking ban. However both Scottish Labour and the SNP have looked to protect and manage public services, but not looked at ways of making them better. Meanwhile the SNP ducked out of reforming local authority financing because, firstly they couldn’t make Local Income Tax work and then lost faith in that policy.<br />
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This of course is the frustrating thing about the SNP. Among all of our parties, their values have the highest ambition, national self determination. Yet as we found out during the Independence referendum campaign they didn’t really articulate very well what they would do differently – save for some corporation tax cuts and giving power away to Brussels and to Threadneedle Street. The really interesting and radical policy manoeuvres came from The Common Weal and Radical Independence Groups. Organisations that the SNP hierarchy would only touch with a long stick and the SNP supporting Macblogosphere have recently started to try to discredit. Now that Independence is in the long grass (until it becomes feasible and winnable), the SNP have started to do what they should have been doing two years ago, and kitefly desirable policies. On the one hand it is to be welcomed that there will be new Social Security powers to tackle inequality, free care and childcare will be extended. On the other while record investment is needed in the NHS, surely we should be looking at NHS reform & reorganisation to see if the NHS can be run better. If anything, the running sore which is GGHB’s treatment of the RAH is proof that the NHS is something that needs to be looked at, not treated as a sacred cow.<br />
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The people who should be looking back with interest at events 20 years ago are the current occupants of Bute House. As I’ve said previously and in previous posts, Indyref 2 is simply not winnable at this moment. Three years is still fresh in the memory and in most people’s minds nothing has really changed. Yes the First Minister and her supporters talk of material change having taken place last June, in the minds of most voters however this material change has not happened. The second thought that occurs is that the SNP really should be aiming to take inspiration and emulate what the campaign for a Scottish Parliament achieved twenty years ago. Independence as the settled will of the Scottish People, and on those percentage points, should be the target.<br />
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How they do that is really for the SNP to decide. Here though it’s worth reiterating some thoughts I’ve had both here and on twitter. It should be a broad campaign, not afraid to make contradictory left wing and right wing arguments. The SNP should <b>not</b> be front and centre of the campaign (James MacKenzie first made this point in the aftermath of the first Independence referendum & it’s something I completely agree with). Some right wing endorsements for Independence might not be a bad thing (is Michael Fry seriously the only right wing person in Scotland who supports Independence?). The arguments (from whichever wing) should be completely and utterly bombproof and in particular the economic argument. Though if there is anything that can be learned from the EU referendum it is that dry economic figures can be trumped (apologies for the use of that phrase) by making the link to people’s real lives. Maybe pro-Independence campaigners could use graphs and charts. After all, it seems to work for Kevin Hague...<br />
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More than Blair’s victory and the death of Diana, the twin referendums here and in Wales (followed by the Good Friday agreement) did more to change the UK than those two previous events. It has changed us, I may be disappointed at Holyrood, but that’s the failings of Holyrood politicians. It has also changed England as it has somehow become easier for the London based media to not cover events here with the nadir being McConnell’s win in 2003 garnering very little coverage in the network news. SNP victories seem to gather much more interest (can’t think why...) while coverage of the Independence referendum merely showed how ignorant the London based media were of events here. For as long as we remain within the UK, Holyrood should remain a part of the political architecture of this country and be allowed to evolve and thrive. Any attempts to remove or neuter Holyrood would therefore be akin to playing with fireworks in a garage forecourt. Be warned Teresa May.<br />
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Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-45916561317422237582017-09-04T13:00:00.000+01:002017-09-04T13:00:30.474+01:00No Job For A NoviceIn among all of the heartfelt tributes to Dugdale, even from her political enemies, there were two observations missing. It is perhaps true that the leadership was foisted upon the young Dugdale or at the very least she took on the challenge of winning the leadership and then the job itself perhaps reluctantly. This does not excuse however what a poor leader she was and that her stunning inexperience shone at every opportunity.<br />
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Attacking Corbyn, ‘SNPBad-ism’, and adopting a hard line Unionist tack in the three elections she was leader all showed a leader not experienced enough to develop her own ideas. With Corbyn, it would have been prudent to have stayed silent on the subject and not claim he was unelectable (or at the very least abstain from doing your political enemies job for them, a task the Progress wingers seemed unable to resist doing when it came to Corbyn). On attacking the SNP, there should (as <a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/snpbad-and-golden-rule-of-opposition_11.html">I pointed out at the time</a>) have been policy ideas designed to ensure the attacks on the SNP were not just for the sake of attacks on the SNP. On the issue of a second Independence referendum, I’m just simply not convinced that there are that many votes on the left in out-Torying the Tories on this policy. It is noticeable however that the surge in votes from the SNP to Labour came when the First Minister herself said that Indyref 2 would not be an issue in that election.<br />
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That’s not to say she was poor all of the time, indeed arguably she was a harbinger of Labour’s wider left turn with her call for tax increases during the 2016 Holyrood elections. The problem with that call was that thanks to the evolving devolution settlements, tax increases were across the board and not targeted at higher earners. The policy workaround of a tax rebate fell apart under scrutiny as it was found to be unlawful. This policy was Dugdale’s big missed opportunity, and a missed opportunity for the country as a whole to debate taxation as the resultant campaign played out with the SNP successfully (as it turned out) making the argument that they were standing up for Scottish tax payers.<br />
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Mind you, maybe those criticisms are harsh. After all a lot of the left/Labour people I’ve spoken to think warmly towards her. A colleague in work said he wasn’t surprised she’d gone, her best friend had died and she’d had her private life publicised in the newspapers, it was no surprise that this had affected her. It’s somewhat telling that, as someone more leftwing than me, he did say that he rather liked her. With those circumstances in mind and the fact that “Scottish” Labour looks in much better health than it did in the aftermath of the 2015 Election near wipe-out, perhaps those criticisms are harsh. Then we remember that one of the other members of the intake from the 2011 Holyrood elections was another young female politician who also became a party leader and that two posts ago I was talking about as possibly the next first minister. Perhaps it’s better for you dear reader to judge if comparisons between Dugdale and Ruth Davidson are entirely fair.<br />
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The second observation missing is that Scottish Labour is, to all intents and purposes, still run by ‘Progress wing’ people. All the talk by London based commentators seems to have missed this in the aftermath of Corbyn’s mini tour of Scottish ‘super-marginal’s’. The (mis) calculation being made being that Corbyn’s visit followed by Dugdale’s departure must mean some sort of putsch. While it is true that there is now a growing ‘Momentum’ presence within Scottish Labour, Dugdale’s resignation has deprived them of the time to get their respective ducks into line. Rather inadvertently, Dugdale has ensured a ‘continuity Progress’ candidate will be her successor.<br />
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The hot favourite therefore will be the former Glasgow Central MP and current List MSP and Health spokesperson Anas Sarwar. He was Deputy Leader to Johann Lamont during the Independence referendum campaign, he was one of the people shredded by the SNP’s then Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon during Scotland Tonight’s referendum debates during the 2013/14 period. It remains to be seen if his debating skills have improved. That he will be the next leader probably won’t be in doubt, given he was seen at Corbyn’s rallies pressing the flesh, shoehorned Corbyn’s name into his Sunday Mail piece at every opportunity and may pitch himself as the unity candidate. Whether he should be the next leader is another question entirely.<br />
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Apart from being shredded by Alex Salmond’s anointed successor, Sarwar I suspect will simply repeat many of the mistakes of the Dugdale months. The top of that list would be a reaffirming of strident opposition to a second Independence referendum (in spite of the prospect of said referendum disappearing quicker than the EU’s ‘diplomatic face’). Of course, as Sarwar is a key architect of ‘SNPBad’ then we would have that back. I’d suspect that as a Progress winger, some of Dugdale’s well intentioned but doubtless knee jerk left wing policy moves will be for the bin too, which would be an opportunity not taken as the SNP might be quite vulnerable there since they’ve moved to a fiscally right wing position.<br />
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So far Sarwar has not declared his candidature. At this moment the only runner and rider in this contest is the party’s economy spokesperson Richard Leonard. One of the 2016 intake at Holyrood, Leonard’s background is from the unions and he is firmly on the left of the party. I must admit that I don’t think I’ve seen him before either on television or heard him on the radio so I can’t really tell if he’d be any good or not. It is however very pleasing that the left will have a dog in this fight.<br />
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When Dugdale was elected, I wrote that she was the most inexperienced person to have taken on such a high profile job. That Labour have recovered their position is not something I think you can ascribe as her legacy (indeed Scottish Labour’s vote increase in June was only the second election since 1997 where Labour’s vote went up in Scotland, the other election being 2010). Any legacy I suppose would begin and end with stopping the rot. With the glimpses of sympathies towards Scottish independence and her relationship with an SNP MSP, for the first time the story of a resignation may not just play out into the succession battlefield but what happens next with Ms Dugdale.<br />
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Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-38098959058449872762017-08-30T13:00:00.000+01:002017-08-30T13:00:32.529+01:00Holocaust, Climate Change, GERS?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Of all the things which lost
the last Independence Referendum for the SNP, the thing near the top of the
list would have been the SNP’s failure to win the economic argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anything that the SNP said or planned to say
was instantly obscured by their nonsensical policy of adopting the English
Pound as currency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So far, things are
altogether different.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">If you got past the currency
issue, the SNP tended to promise all things to all people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They offered Scandinavian style social and
public service policies, which would be built not on high direct taxation (like
the Scandinavians do) but on an Anglo-American model of low direct and
corporate taxation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The people driving
Salmond’s vision of Irish levels of corporation tax was the pro-business
Business For Scotland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The high profile
members during the referendum, namely Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp and Michelle
Thomson, put forward visions of an independent Scotland reliant on low business
taxes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, they were
disciples of the cult of Laffer – Arthur Laffer’s theory is that there is a
point where increasing tax rates will become counter productive has been
replaced by a theory that lower tax rates will somehow bring higher tax
revenues.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The claims that Business For
Scotland made might have been feasible claims, but without any workings on
show, they looked outlandish.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although
Business for Scotland were mostly up against the might of the pro-Union
parties, it was the blogger Kevin Hague, and his methodical posts outlining how
and why Independence could (potentially) not work and <a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/business-for-scotland-and-snp.html">debunking BFS</a> which,
essentially torpedoed BFS’ credibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So
much so that, I do believe that the vestiges of BFS’s credibility can still be
located somewhere down the back of Hague’s sofa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hague’s posts, particularly on the GERS
figures, made him a cause celebre among the London centric Progress supporting
elites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Personally, I thought Hague’s
posts to be the benchmark for the economic debate we should be having, even if
I disagreed with his conclusions that a £9 billion black hole in the finances
(at that point) meant that we couldn’t be independent – my own thoughts being
that the deficit would only be the jumping off point and that dealing with the
fiscal black hole should be an election issue in the first Scottish General
election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, there are smaller
independent countries with less advantages than Scotland would have that have
made a successful go of being independent.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">With great irony, another
critic of the Scottish Government’s fixation on low Corporation Taxes in the
belief that they generate wealth was one <a href="http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2011/08/24/the-scottish-government-is-living-in-la-la-laffer-land/">Richard Murphy</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A long time campaigner for fair taxation and
the closure of tax loopholes, Murphy began writing a series of posts in
relation to the <a href="http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2014/09/22/new-report-the-tax-gap-is-119-4-billion-and-rising/">Tax Gap</a> – the shortfall between tax expected and tax collected
and received by HMRC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of Murphy’s
arguments has been with HMRC, who have been slow to provide accurate numbers or
had obfuscated Murphy’s attempts to find out what the exact size of the Tax Gap
was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Several years ago, Murphy estimated
that the tax gap could be as high as £119.4 billion, of late HMRC have claimed
that they have the tax gap under control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Murphy remains sceptical and has continued to question the competency
and the veracity of HMRC.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Surprisingly, the tax gap issue
did not cross into the referendum debate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At a time when HMRC prepared figures were being used by the Scottish
Government and then fed into arguments over whether Scotland could afford to
become independent, it was somewhat strange to see widespread acceptance of those
figures at a point when HMRC were being accused of not being effective enough
in gathering tax and spinning figures to hide the extent of the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, if the £119.4 billion figure, which
HMRC refused to confirm only saying the true figure was lower, is close to the
truth then it would impact on the GERS figures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This means that Scotland’s tax take could potentially be a lot
healthier.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">That Murphy then has a
reputation for challenging HMRC’s figures should not have been a shock to
pro-Union campaigners.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is
surprising is that the <a href="http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/14/why-economic-data-provided-by-london-will-not-help-the-scottish-independence-debate/">intervention in relation to the GERS figures came from Murphy himself</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Granted, it would have
taken the mother and father of all reverse ferrets for the Scottish Government,
however both the wider “Yes” supporting community and Business for Scotland
should have made this argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the
wake of Murphy’s posts on GERS, both groups look to be spectators in an
argument they should be in the thick of.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">That intervention in the spring
had essentially lit the fuse on the economic debate ahead of an at that point
likely second Independence referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Murphy’s posts make two arguments, continuing the tax gap argument over
HMRC’s poor data gathering into specific country-by-country data that is the
GERS figures themselves and by highlighting that the GERS figures themselves
are “estimates”. <br />
<br />
Yip, you read that right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>HMRC’s figure
gathering does not extend to accurate figures on region/country by
region/country tax receipts so all figures are estimates.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Of course, Hague does have a
point that most economists produce estimates and forecasts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem is that the forecast debt/deficit
for Scotland on day one of Independence is not reported as forecasts or
estimates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hague’s produced figures are
reported and circulated as cold sober fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The pro-Union politicians talk up those figures as fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pro-union journalists, including friends of
Hague in the national media (yes, you Nick Cohen and you John Rentoul), talk of
a profligate Scottish government running up a debt in the billions <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">as if the Scottish Government had those
powers</i>...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with those figures as
fact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, there is something of a
cottage industry surrounding these factually reported estimates that it is
often forgotten that alongside the figures being estimates that economists are
not the one homogenous group thinking the same thoughts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have different thoughts and different
opinions. As an example, Monetarism still divides opinion, though not as much as it did when it formed the economic centrepieces of the nascient Thatcher and Regan administrations.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">That fact seems to have evaded
Hague as any time the ‘estimates’ line is raised with him on Twitter, he
deliberately attempts to denigrate Murphy’s work and smugly shows off the
people who agree with him without any attempt at discourse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On Murphy’s more pertinent point, if there
was no tax gap then how does Hague explain away the conduct of one Dave
Hartnett.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consultant at Deloitte, former
Permanent Secretary of Tax at HMRC and the person responsible for HMRC’s
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/jun/17/hmrc-head-tax-corporate-entertainment">notorious sweetheart deals</a> with such companies as Vodaphone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>HMRC not being fit for purpose regarding
cracking down on tax avoidance has been a regular fixture of the pages of
Private Eye for years, and yet Hague and his increasingly Wings-esque union
jack brandishing supporters seem oblivious to this and HMRC’s other failings
while they trumpet statistical estimates as cast iron fact in a fashion that
Stuart Campbell would be proud of.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">I had started this post in
April and had thought of the title at the time as Hague had taken to calling
pro-Independence supporters “<i>GERS deniers</i>”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A couple of weeks ago, during a spat with your’s truly, he went as far
as drawing parallels with climate change sceptics, holocaust deniers and GERS
sceptics. Instead of discourse, Hague attempt’s to lure people into a cut’s
versus tax argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All very Osbornesque,
intolerant and deeply petulant.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The problem with Hague’s tax
versus spend argument is that the question of what you’d cut, a favourite
question among pro-union <s>econo</s>.. <s>coment</s>... bloggers, is a
simplistic one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Independence means the
opportunity to start afresh and raise revenue that would be to the benefit of
the Scottish people and not be tied to the structures of the UK’s tax
architecture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking at how we gather
money in, it must surely be in the interests of Independence supporters to look
at ways of raising living standards as a whole and raise the income tax take
purely through higher wages and generating jobs rather than glib '<i>We could all have had a bar of gold if we were independent</i>' thinkpieces from MacIntyre-Kemp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After 10 years of stagnant wage growth, an
average wage of £27,820 seems a tad small (even if this is just above the UK
average).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course the other area that
could be looked at could be some form of land tax system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of which the Scottish Greens no doubt have
several thoughts on that subject.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Much
like everything else in Scottish politics, this debate is deeply coloured by
the debate on Independence where everything is either right or wrong depending
on where you sit on the great divide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While we do not need Hague’s penchant for hallucinogenic graphs to tell
us that Independence would be a bumpy ride at the start – and for that matter
the SNP & BFS’s disingenuousness on this subject only feeds the cult of
Hague.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We surely should have known
before Murphy’s spring intervention that HMRC as a tax gathering and tax
reporting organisation is simply not fit for purpose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What Murphy has successfully done therefore is to create reasonable doubt surrounding the GERS figures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Something the combined forces of the SNP and
Business for Scotland failed to do in 2014.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-11304583592553464332017-08-21T13:00:00.000+01:002017-08-21T13:00:07.877+01:00The Next First Minister?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Of all the
reaction’s I had received from last month’s record breaking post, the most
thought provoking was one from Ergasiophobe who wondered if the infighting which
infects losing parties would infect the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Thought provoking because I hadn’t thought about any internal disputes
regarding the SNP.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-AbI5XO7yISLX8vUFCZheLRs-iyBu55jBCrtGIm98NfbmW1WV9kCn2ObOMgWNbUufR3vipLhZ99ErxvSpufsNVSqiLVjLxrQDf_g9CA1ve37AbcqnoasebrKoy7kx6mYNzSEbsTe5N18/s1600/JS62362700.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1082" data-original-width="1600" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-AbI5XO7yISLX8vUFCZheLRs-iyBu55jBCrtGIm98NfbmW1WV9kCn2ObOMgWNbUufR3vipLhZ99ErxvSpufsNVSqiLVjLxrQDf_g9CA1ve37AbcqnoasebrKoy7kx6mYNzSEbsTe5N18/s400/JS62362700.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The daddy of
political splits and acrimony is still the Labour Party, It somehow seems
astonishing that they should put on 10% points in the middle of something you
can describe as a civil war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do
forget though that the SNP have had periods in the past with serious
disagreements over direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most
serious being in the early 1980’s when the SNP has a classic left versus right
split.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More pertinently there has also
been a split between ‘the gradualists’ – people who believed that the route to
Independence was a process and that the best route was through a Scottish
Parliament and powers coming to that parliament – and the ‘fundamentalists’ –
people who want Independence yesterday. This debate rumbled on within the SNP
for years and was only won by the ‘gradualists’ in the mid 1990’s when the
possibility of a Scottish Parliament became real.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Except that now in the post Indyref climate,
everyone in the SNP is pretty much a fundamentalist.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In this respect,
there looks as if there are two potential flashpoints that could trigger some
infighting or introspection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most
likely point being the loss of Indyref 2, which as I’ve discussed previously
looks less and less winnable in the light of the SNP’s rush to tie EU
membership to the Independence question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The other flashpoint of a possible SNP civil war breaking out would be a
possible defeat at the next Holyrood elections in 2020. Of course, we have seen
some disagreements among SNP members since the election with SNP members (most
recently the former MP Michelle Thompson) noticing that there are issues with
the party’s Chief Executive being married to the party’s leader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it’s taken SNP members nigh on three years
for that particular penny to drop, then we better get used to a long wait for
the SNP to discuss elections that they’ve lost.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">That there is now
outright contemplation of the end of the first SNP government at Holyrood is an
indication of the trouble that the SNP are in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Never mind a second Independence referendum, there is the possibility of
the SNP being turfed out in three years time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Scotland’s own Mystic Moog, George Laird, at the start of the month predicted
that Ruth Davidson would be Scotland’s next First Minister.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a brave prediction, not because
Davidson won’t for certain be the next First Minister but because it’s not
certain at this point that the SNP have done enough to have lost the next
election.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">For Davidson to
win, we would obviously need to see some policies and an indication of what the
Tories would do with the tax powers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
repeat of the mantra to vote Tory to stop Indyref 2 will simply not be enough
to propel Davidson into Bute House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One
thing you can count on will be that Davidson will be helped along the way by
her cheerleader in chief, STV’s former IT comment person and the only person in
Scotland to be a fanboy of both Wings and Spanner. There are, however, two
other roadblocks to a Tory win.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Firstly and
probably more importantly there is the performance from now until Election Day
of the incumbent government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the
SNP have taken the important step of putting a second Independence referendum
on the backburner (where it should remain until either the SNP figure out how
to win or it becomes winnable) how the SNP use the next 3-4 years will be
key.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Top of the must do list should be
not simply to get back to the day job but to get and retain a firm grip on the
job of government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is two
distinctly different things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Doing the so
called day job has been what the SNP have been doing since...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well 2011.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What they have not been doing is gripping the job, focusing on it firmly
and being completely on top of the job.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Without the distraction of Independence, would the SNP have let education
standards slide as an example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
really for this reason that Keith Brown is slowly emerging as, if not the heir
apparent then certainly the most likely successor to Nicola Sturgeon given his
steady handling of his brief at Transport & now as Scotland’s Economy
minister.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The other thing
that the SNP can control is of course public policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For all that Baby Boxes is a good sound
idea...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it was the only real policy the
SNP had during the last Holyrood elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is a real debate to be had about reform of education and the NHS,
especially pertinent given the silence emanating from Edinburgh regarding the
fate of the RAH’s children’s ward, and the SNP are in prime position to start
and shape that debate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That they have
not in 10 years of government adds fuel to the fire that the SNP government
only wish to conserve our public services and are not interested in looking at
ways where they could work better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Sooner or later, that disinterest in reform will come back to haunt the
SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Quite possibly when the decision
regarding the RAH is announced.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The second
roadblock for Davidson will be the fate of Scottish Labour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We saw a flavour during the election just how
badly the hierarchy of Scottish Labour judged the electorate by sidelining a campaign
which gathered votes in England in favour of aping the Tories ‘Tough of
national self determination and tough on the causes of national self
determination’ message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they continue
along the lines of ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">SNPBad</i>’ and
continue to relentlessly criticise the SNP without putting forward any
constructive critiques or policies, then you will really fancy Davidson’s
chances of pushing the SNP.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">However, if
Scottish Labour stop trying to out ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yoon</i>’
the Tories and advocate more left wing policies (sidelining the ‘No to Indyref
2’ line, saying it’s up to the Scottish people) then you could see Lauren’s “<a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/the-red-shoots-of-recovery.html"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">red shoots</i></a>” flower into a full tilt
itself at Bute House, knocking the Tories back into third place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The one problem with this is that Scottish
Labour is still very much dominated by Progress wing people who do not get
Corbyn or Momentum-ism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The very people
who thought they should be running a locally focused election campaign rather
than one based on Corbyn’s policies.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">This fear of
Corbynism also explains why SNP supporters online have turned their fire on
Corbyn, he is ‘apparently’ no friend of Scotland for not wanting a second
Independence referendum and for supporting Trident.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That it is his party that does want Trident renewal (Corbyn himself is not in favour of it) and that the
public support Trident (or some sort of nuclear deterrent) seems to have
bypassed those SNP supporters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Similarly
that Scotland is itself split on the subject of a second Independence
referendum seems to have not registered with those selfsame people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The adoption of negative arguments by SNP
supporters is designed to obscure the rather bare policy cupboard that the SNP
have.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If anything, it is Scottish Labour
that have the policy ideas, nationalising Scotrail once Abello’s franchise is
complete and putting up taxes to protect public services.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether they are the correct policies, or as
well formed as they should be is another matter but at least there is a sort of
policy debate from Scottish Labour.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Scottish Labour
still has a long way to go before they are capable of putting their leader into
Bute House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their issues though are not
as insurmountable as that for the Tories and Davidson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is still a large constituency in
Scotland where the Tories are utter poison for their role in destroying
Scottish heavy industry and working class culture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That reason above all means that the next
occupant of Bute House is more likely to be Keith Brown than Ruth Davidson.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-26730128227347101072017-07-31T16:00:00.000+01:002017-07-31T20:37:25.142+01:00The Suicide Note For The Yes Movement?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">One of the
ongoing debates in Scottish politics is what happened to the 476,867 voters who
voted SNP two years ago and didn’t on June 8th, with consequences feeding into
the narrative of why.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/22/how-did-2015-voters-cast-their-ballot-2017-general/">YouGov’s</a> post
election poll found it likely that those voters simply did not vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The competing argument comes from <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/">Michael Ashcroft’s polling</a>, which found that 12% of the SNP’s vote in 2015 went to
Labour (with half that voting Tory this time).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You pays your money and you take your choice, so to speak.</span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwObciD285qX1PJMXa1pqUBS8OGzyANdmIwBTFNi-oUorN7hPSd_666oi3j8v3bePMn4WnPendr4-6frHcrIhSBgVnwKogMrSR4o7jkAhFM807jJw3tUfQWL_jL8DlpXqVjynb_FFtHgU/s1600/Cat+Boyd.jpg.gallery.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="433" data-original-width="650" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwObciD285qX1PJMXa1pqUBS8OGzyANdmIwBTFNi-oUorN7hPSd_666oi3j8v3bePMn4WnPendr4-6frHcrIhSBgVnwKogMrSR4o7jkAhFM807jJw3tUfQWL_jL8DlpXqVjynb_FFtHgU/s400/Cat+Boyd.jpg.gallery.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i>Kat Boyd:Welcome puncturer of complacent one eyed yesser perceived wisdom.</i></span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span id="goog_1692801319"></span><span id="goog_1692801320"></span>Obviously SNP
supporters would prefer the narrative of their 2015 voters choosing not to vote
rather than the narrative of their voters voting for a ‘Unionist’ party
regardless of the SNP hierarchy stating that this election was not a vote for
Independence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While we are now seeing
the SNP revert to being ‘fundamentalist’ in relation to the question of
Independence, we are now seeing arguments start between ‘ideologically pure’
independence supporters – supporters who unquestionably support the SNP and
actively attempt to discredit other pro-Independence parties – and supporters
who see Independence as a means to an end.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">We had seen this
argument before, with the blogger James Kelly aggressively promoting the “both
votes SNP” argument during last year’s Holyrood elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His argument was that only both votes would
deliver a second SNP majority government – and aggressively by attempting to
run both the Scottish Greens and RISE (the post referendum re-branded Scottish
Scocialists and Radical Independence affiliates) off the road – and therefore
would mean a second Independence referendum being on the table when conditions
were favourable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unsurprisingly RISE
failed to gain traction among voters (new party and a distinctly underwhelming campaign
being the key reasons), however the Scottish Greens gained list votes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As for the both votes strategy it was a
success...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>except it wasn’t. As the SNP
gathered their biggest votes ever for FPTP and beat Labour’s record for list
votes their success in the FPTP seats worked against them in the list seats
while the thing which lost them the cherished majority was, well SNP losses in
North East Fife, Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Central which did for
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">So thank you
RISE’s figurehead Kat Boyd (above) for reigniting this argument and for eliciting such
a response that I suspect that the Yes Movement is in a parlous place if such
ideological thinking is mainstream among the one eyed Yessers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh, and thank you as well for having the
balls to speak the truth too.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Boyd popped up in
a short film broadcast on the last pre-holiday Sunday Politics, Graham Stuart’s
film looked at the SNP’s result and drew parallels with their response to the
2005 result (which saw them fall behind the Lib Dems).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Boyd called for the SNP to be more radical
whilst defending her decision to vote Labour (and for Corbyn) in June.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This admission upset the one eyed Yessers and
confirmed Boyd and her party as ‘pretend’ nationalists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact that the SNP’s own policy platform has
undoubtedly moved to the right since the 2014 referendum seems to have bypassed
those Yessers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That move in itself
validates Boyd’s decision to vote for Corbyn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Boyd’s appearance
provoked obviously a reaction from the one eyed Yessers and also an astonishing
response from the aforementioned Mister Kelly of the <a href="http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/but-we-can-still-rise-now-and-vote-for.html?spref=tw">Scotland Goes Pop</a>
blog.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Astonishing, because the post to
all intents and purposes lays out a manifesto for an ideologically pure
pro-Independence drive for votes taking Independence and independence only as
the basis for your vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no
concession to whether you agree with the SNP on, say, local authority funding,
education, taxation or relations with the EU, you vote SNP for
independence...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or you are the enemy for
voting for a ‘Yoon’ party.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Kelly’s plot was
well and truly lost right at the start when he said that RISE were now
vulnerable, or as he put it “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This episode
may also be helpful to the SNP on the list vote at the next Holyrood election,
because RISE (or whatever succeeds RISE) will find it even harder to pitch for
'pro-independence tactical votes' now that their commitment to independence has
been shown to be rather superficial.</i>”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Quite how this
will assist an SNP which looks more and more Mac-New Labouresque as the days go
by, and look in some trouble is beyond me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Scottish Greens are capable of taking votes from the SNP should they
continue to drift rightwards, and this really should be RISE’s tactic too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the point missed by Kelly is that
RISE were canvassing for votes from the Radical Independence wing of the
Independence constituency, votes that would only go to the SNP tactically
anyway (in the same way that left of centre votes only went to the SNP because
of the Progress tendency within Scottish Labour).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If people like Kelly are intent in destroying
parties offering different policies from the SNP but on the same page as the
SNP regarding Independence, then it does not bode well for the Yes coalition
does it, never mind Indyref 2.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Not that the
signs are encouraging anyway, judging by the First Ministers bad reading of the
post EU referendum landscape.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However
that desire for a ‘pure’ Independence movement is causing strains which mean
that logically the next pro-Independence campaign must be a more ‘loose’
affair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly not the SNP led &
managed affair that was in the offing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There are real divisions there, and not just about policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last week’s question de jour was should the
pro-Independence coalition distance themselves from an English based homophobe
and his chimp like followers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The cult of
Stuart Campbell raised it’s head once again last week as he took the leader of
Scottish Labour, Kezia Dugdale, to court.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Dugdale had called Campbell out for being Homophobic over tweets about
the Tory MSP (and son of the Scottish Secretary) Oliver Mundell during First
Ministers questions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That Campbell has
form for being misogynistic and homophobic seems to have bypassed the chimps in
their rush to attempt to defend the indefensible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That there is still a debate over Campbell
and his little man Trump tweets seems bizarre. Even more bizarre is that the
SNP have not sufficiently distanced themselves or condemned Campbell, in spite
of the damage that he and his followers are doing to the Independence cause.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Common Space’s Angela Haggerty compares
this episode to the fate of Tommy Sheridan, though personally I think the
parallels are more with the ex-Tory cabinet minister Jonathan Aitken.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like Aitken, Campbell is suing to <s>salve
his bruised ego</s> clear his name (though Campbell is only suing Dugdale,
Aitken pursued both ITV & The Guardian).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I don’t think there’s been a cringe worthy speech about using a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1995/apr/11/uk1"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">trusty sword of truth and the shield of British fair play</i></a>” to cut out a cancer, but we can only hope.. sorry, what's that Skippy, he has said he's fighting against the "<i>lies and smears from Unionist politicians</i>". Well that is Aitken-esque levels of chutzpah.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As for the other
parallels...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>we can but hope.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The counter
argument – that he is not a member of the SNP - is stuff of poppycock.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SNP politicians regularly re-tweet and
favourite his tweets and promote his posts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In this sense, Campbell/Wings is the SNP’s own creation and his ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">success</i>’ is the reason we have been
lumbered with a second ‘personality’ providing off colour rants on social media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For all of the outrage about ‘Brian Spanner’,
he is essentially Wings for a pro-Union audience – you simply cannot criticise
one without criticising the other. Dapper Laughs is almost funny by comparison.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Alongside passing
so called “peak Nat”, we are now seeing that the SNP & the pro-Independence
supporters have now lost control of the narrative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scotland has not (so far) turned to
Independence in droves whilst we are now seeing more critical evidence of the
SNP’s failure to get a proper grip on the task of government during their
second term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are now also seeing the
breakdown of the ‘Yes’ coalition, driven by a drive for an ideologically pure
pro-Independence support to rally, unquestionably, behind the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem with that is that it flies in the
face of the original impulse that differences were put aside in an attempt to
achieve the bigger goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now differences
are magnified and people who deviate from the central message are chastised for
doing so and ‘hurting’ the indy message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then again, that’s the problem with us and them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If ‘us’ develops unlikable tendencies then
criticism (however valid) will look to the hard liners as support for them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">For a party and a
movement who’s aims are not the majority view in the country, both the SNP and
the one eyed Yessers are failing in changing that state of affairs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have ostracized people who voted to
leave the EU – dubbing them Tories (even if there is a perfectly sane &
sensible left wing case against the EU).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are ostracizing left wingers and people who are attracted to
Corbyn’s Labour party whilst pandering to the Homophobic whims of their own
little man Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even if laughably they
are planning to fly in the face of those actions and present a progressive
centre left version of Independence. After the past couple of weeks, <i>good luck with that</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
this is the moment the Yes coalition crashed and burned, then Kelly’s somewhat
petulant & self indulgent post on Kat Boyd, alongside Stuart Campbell’s
Jonathan Aitken moment, should be seen as it’s suicide note. </span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-16251210519886293642017-07-08T12:00:00.000+01:002017-07-08T12:00:26.031+01:00Not To Be This Time<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #0c343d;">Guest blogpost time again. This post is from the grand fromage of Paisley.org, general promoter of all things Buddie and candidate in the recent council elections, Brian McGuire. Here's his story from the inside of that campaign.</span></i> </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyR2SlUhpZMdXbPcefhtrQdwNW3I5fZoqWZBMRY61B-ZgD9kV9SH1MYQPmOcjfambNIyTTGhuhkoci58ymMxgITvU5AZCjWn39CVfAMGd118RGGYUIHWmSSX0_nHUt7zjdrBx_6lF1M9g/s1600/19848934_10156290681027786_488721014_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyR2SlUhpZMdXbPcefhtrQdwNW3I5fZoqWZBMRY61B-ZgD9kV9SH1MYQPmOcjfambNIyTTGhuhkoci58ymMxgITvU5AZCjWn39CVfAMGd118RGGYUIHWmSSX0_nHUt7zjdrBx_6lF1M9g/s400/19848934_10156290681027786_488721014_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I was a candidate for the 2017 council elections, unfortunately,
due to the way the name (alphabetical) and 3 of our same party on the ballot
sheet I knew from the start it would be a struggle but in the early days I was
positive.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I stood for
election because I have the best interests of my area at heart.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Campaigning
is done in what is called VMS (Voter Management Strategy) i.e the person who is
the councillor gets less of the ward to canvass and leaflet the person whos
name alphabetically suits gets around the same sometimes more sometimes less,
on this occasion I was given 57% of houses to canvass, leaflet, newsletter and
then send out an election address.</span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">A
monumental task considering the thousands of houses I had to deliver to.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The first
part is canvassing chapping doors and seeing if they would support you, I had a
fantastic response on the doors, which within a week sort of became weird as
Nicola Sturgeon spoke about IndyRef2 which got voters who were voting a bit
mixed up with national and local issues, once local issues were explained the
public were back on track.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I never
came across any person who was rude and actually knew tons of people who in the
constituency knew me through the work I already do.. So the feeling was high.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Then Theresa
May decided a snap election would take place and the environment of
friendliness changed people became disenchanted and fed up of elections,
bear in mind all this happened within just a few weeks.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">So it was
now Unionist against Nationalist, The Prime Minister and her media bandwagon
got going and Scotland again was the weaker nation in her and her cabinets
eyes, how dare we want to go alone, get back in your place Scotland.</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The
mainstream media changed people's perceptions and from that point onwards it
was a struggle.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The
campaign was successful for our group overall but not for myself but I
will continue to stick up for the town via my paisley.org.k website.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I wont be
put off doing it in the future but they have to come up with a better way of
randomising names, the best people for the job are being beaten if your surname
ends with an alphabetically correct name. McGuire was near the bottom of the
list and I could hardly see myself let alone anyone else.</span></div>
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</span><br />
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I wish the
new council administration all the very best and I am sure they will have the
area at heart.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-61730989635294588632017-06-26T13:00:00.000+01:002017-06-26T13:00:26.317+01:00Slipping Through Fingers<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">If May’s
Conservative party are the big losers from the General Election, then what are
we to make then of the party who lost more seats, net, than the Tories and unlike the Tories lost votes
and dropped points in the share of the vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They may have won their second General Election here in Scotland, and
continued the winning run that goes back to the 2010 General Election, but the
SNP have the look of a party in trouble and in several minds as to its
direction of travel.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnlySLYvJVtq4BYo878KRS-pNGpna_cYLrMBGxQuIoaXxgRGEF5TwXLH8Gwx7Sp1smB-kNNkd41lFXA1tIma9Nz3-AV2L4fDgQyCsldcPRmuYhzK21Y1acp1tCd9su6-wd69Q1YoMKcGc/s1600/SNP+Group+2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="624" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnlySLYvJVtq4BYo878KRS-pNGpna_cYLrMBGxQuIoaXxgRGEF5TwXLH8Gwx7Sp1smB-kNNkd41lFXA1tIma9Nz3-AV2L4fDgQyCsldcPRmuYhzK21Y1acp1tCd9su6-wd69Q1YoMKcGc/s400/SNP+Group+2017.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The media
narrative blames the SNP’s ‘obsession’ with a second Independence referendum as
being something that has turned voters away from the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve said before that I don’t think that this
policy in itself is a vote loser, that it is more the SNP’s interpretation of
their “material change” and that the public’s interpretation of that policy is
different, the public clearly do not see Scotland as being “<i>ripped from the EU
against our will</i>” as the SNP clearly do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However it is the SNP’s clear tying of the Independence issue to membership
of the EU which has caused the ‘Indyref 2’ policy damage. What the SNP’s so
called obsession with ‘Indyref 2’ has done is galvanise another group of voters
that the SNP have alienated & disrespected, that group of voters who voted
to keep Scotland within the UK, voters who are not SNP voters or bother with the fripparies of '55' twibbons or such like.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The hierarchy of
the SNP seem to have not noticed that 36% of SNP voters voted to leave the EU
last June as since Referendum Day, the SNP have pursued a dogmatic, narrow view
of the result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dogmatic in the sense
that they have dismissed the 1 million leave voters as xenophobes whilst
presenting the 62% of Scottish remain voters as true progressives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we became wary rather quickly with “Strong
and stable” then “Tory hard Brexit” seems to have stood a better test of time,
unjustifiably so as it isn’t just the Tories who would like a “hard” Brexit. To
quote Donald Tusk “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">there is no ‘soft
Brexit’, there is only ‘hard’ Brexit or no Brexit</i>”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The problem then
is what the SNP should do about their, apparently, troublesome policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The SNP, and in particular the First
Minister, have in rushing to put Indyref 2 on the table in the aftermath of the
EU referendum badly misjudged the mood of the Scottish people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even now, after the election, there are SNP
figures saying that they should ‘park’ the issue until the Brexit negotiations
have been completed, which is...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>err...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the same timetable the
Scottish voters have apparently taken a dislike of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is some polling evidence to suggest
that Scottish voters would like to revisit the Independence question, but after
divorce proceedings have taken place.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">As I’ve pointed
out, the issue isn’t about the ‘material change’ but whether a referendum is
winnable in the current climate or a climate 18 months down the line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My conclusion is that any referendum tied to
EU membership, which would not be attractive to the pro-Independent supporters
who do not favour EU membership, would, allied to the SNP’s reluctance to look
at how they lost in 2014, be simply not winnable given the split in the
pro-Independence vote. Another factor to take into account here is that polls
show that Independence is still around the 45% mark of the referendum with only
some polls showing an increase.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other
terms Independence has still not overhauled the Union in spite of this apparent
‘sleight’ against Scots. And for as long as the SNP refuse to come to terms
with their loss in 2014 and respect that result, they will continue to do so.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The lesson that
should be learned here from the SNP’s loss of support is that the next
Independence campaign needs to me much more of a big tent affair than in 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The SNP’s narrow view of how an Independent
Scotland would work was a flawed vision, with both their vision of EU
membership and Sterlingzone being serious issues. And it is the SNP’s view that
Scotland should be a full member in the EU that has caused them to become
unstuck again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The next time, they
should not be so much in the cockpit of the campaign, they should perhaps
promote other voices (the Common Weal & Radical Independence movements did
not get the exposure or influence that they should have).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would also be helpful if there were some
right wing advocates of Independence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
can’t just be Michael Fry from the Right who supports Independence.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The current vogue
among SNP ‘grandees’ is to park the ‘Indyref 2’ issue in some way and promise
to return to it in the next Holyrood parliament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is an attractive proposition but one with
serious problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It risks annoying and
antagonising the new found ‘Fundies’ that now make up the majority of the
party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People who joined in the wake of
the first referendum and are now ‘mobilising’ for another crack at independence
that have been marched to the top of the hill with their “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">putting the band back together</i>” memes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While they might be placated by a
postponement, I suspect that both Davidson & Rennie would much prefer that
the whole referendum thing would be kicked into the long grass in a more permanent
way.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Any parking would
need to be done to not look like a reverse ferret, a difficult task when
Sturgeon has gone so hard on the issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even more so when both the leaders of the Conservatives and Lib Dems
respective Scottish branch offices have put opposition to a second Independence
referendum (regardless of popularity) front and centre of their last two manifestos.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any retreat beyond the outlined timetable
risks handing those two parties a PR boost, victory on a plate and conceivably
enough political momentum to propel Ruth Davidson into Bute House come the next
Holyrood elections.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 19.6pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="4" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 418.15pt;" valign="top" width="558"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">SNP Elections
under Salmond & Sturgeon’s leadership</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Election</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Votes</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">% share</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Seats won</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">5 May 2005
(Westminster)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">412,267</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">17.7% (-2.4%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">6 (+2)</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">3 May 2007
(Holyrood)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">664,374</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">32.9% (+9.1%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">21 (+12)*</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">6 May 2010
(Westminster)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">491,386</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">19.9% (+2.3%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">6 (=)</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">5 May 2011
(Holyrood)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">902,915</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">45.4% (+12.7%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">53 (+32)*</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">7 May 2015
(Westminster)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">1,454,436</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">50.0% (+30.1%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">56 (+50)</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">5 May 2016
(Holyrood)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">1,059,897</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">46.5% (+1.1%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 3.0cm;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">59 (+6)*</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.9pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">8 June 2017
(Westminster)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 78.0pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">977,569</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99.2pt;" valign="top" width="132"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">36.9% (-13.1%)</span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">35 (-21)</span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">*= FPTP seats only</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The ideal route
forward would be to keep reviewing the situation throughout the Brexit
negotiations but indicate willingness to not pursue a second referendum if
their wishes are given a fair hearing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The SNP however have other pressing concerns, as I hinted at in the
previous paragraph it’s now possible that the SNP’s stock has fallen to such an
extent that they may be displaced from government and that the next occupant of
Bute House may well be Ms Davidson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Compared
to Dugdale, Davidson is a shrewd operator who has manoeuvred herself into the
premier protector of ‘the Union’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She
certainly hasn’t made silly mistakes like Dugdale has (though the footage of
her ‘advocating’ tactically voting Tory to kick out the SNP shows no such thing
and seems like a desperate attempt by pro-Indy supporters to smear Dugdale and
Scottish Labour).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Davidson, unlike
Sturgeon (or for that matter Dugdale) has prominent media support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can be certain that the Daily Mail and
it’s columnist who used to work for STV will be Davidson cheerleaders from now
until May 2020.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">If the SNP were
to decide to park ‘Indyref2’, then this provides them with the ideal
opportunity to freshen up their domestic policies and to regain some much
needed grip on the job of government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The reason why 12% of SNP voters from 2015 switched to Labour would be
because of the SNP’s performance in Holyrood and a discernible switch to the
right from the SNP since Sturgeon became First Minister.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is true that the SNP have been the
standard bearers of Social Democratic policies over the past 10 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However that was in the first two terms of
the SNP in government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last year the SNP
ran on an uninspiring ticket promising to do better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was no radical vision or legacy style
policy within that manifesto, instead we have seen Sturgeon promise not to
raise taxes (granted the powers under Calman does not give Holyrood the power
to change separate tax bands, tax rises are across the board, however Sturgeon
shut down the debate on public financing), to continue the Salmond policy of
advocating a lowering of business taxes – for example Corporation Tax and APT
Duty – and to u-turn on the SNP pledge from 2007 to scrap the “unfair” Council
Tax.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it any wonder then that when a
genuine left winger, like Corbyn, comes along that the MacNew Labour project
that is the current SNP looks...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well...
like MacNew Labour.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Alongside the
lacklustre manifesto, the SNP’s big mistake at the General Election was to not
promote their MP’s in the media. Instead we saw a campaign headed up by and
with the public face of Nicola Sturgeon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Rather than talk about what SNP MP’s did at Westminster and the fine
work that they do, the First Minister inserted herself into a campaign...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and invited the narrative of her government’s
issues to become an election issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whatever you think of Angus Robertson (and I think he’s a good debater
with the flaw of veering into Paddy Ashdown style piousness, though he’s not
the worst in his own party) he really should have been much more prominent than
he was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His appearance at the BBC debate
was too little, too late.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The SNP may have
won the election here in Scotland, but it was a much more pyrrhic victory than
May’s Conservatives bigger ‘victory’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead of the serene march to a second referendum, there are now
questions about the SNP’s direction of travel and about the political nous of
the First Minister. Instead of a party with one unified vision, there is now
debate. Whether it’s MacMillan’s night of the long knives followed by his own
resignation, Thatcher’s obsession with reforming local authority financing and
growing Euroscepticism or the chickens coming home to roost for both Blair
& Brown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Third terms are quite often
the most difficult of the lot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unless
the SNP make changes, then the curse of the third term could harm them too.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-18160275497485704152017-06-22T13:00:00.000+01:002017-06-22T19:09:13.874+01:00The Red Shoots Of Recovery<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i>For a change of tack, I thought it would be good to hear about the recent General Election from an insiders point of view. So first up, we have a guest post from Lauren Gilmour from Scottish Labour.</i></span><br />
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i>Lauren is a Labour Party member and activist, and exiled Buddie living in Glasgow, who has a degree in Politics from UWS. Lauren's post is about how Labour can kickstart it's recovery in Scotland.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">What a difference
two years make…</span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">We didn’t see
that one coming. Even as the exit polls, proven to be very wrong at the last
election, came in predicting a hung parliament, we didn’t see it coming.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">We’ll be taking a
look more closely at the campaign Labour ran in the general election both
across the country, in Scotland and in the West of Scotland. </span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">It wasn’t always
going to be this way. Labour went into this campaign with dismal poll ratings
of 25%. They were predicted to fall under 200 seats in an election loss similar
to 1931. But Corbyn had a trick up his sleeve – to run the general campaign in
the same, positive, upbeat way he ran his two previous leadership election
campaigns, which both delivered stonking victories.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Gradually this
worked. We saw Corbyn in his element – proposing not opposing. Ironically,
Corbyn’s campaign events attracted more and more media attention as they grew
due to a focus on the broadcast media, rather than the print media. Journalists
who would push a pro-Labour line were also identified in a strategy similar to
Tony Blair’s 1997 strategy. </span><br />
<span style="color: black;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In contrast,
Theresa May’s campaign was limited to the reluctant party faithful and very
sympathetic journalists who did little to challenge her. Labour election
rallies were open to whoever wanted to go. Corbyn grew more and more
comfortable, speaking and rallying the crowds. He moved from speaking behind a
podium to being able to make off the cuff speeches with just a small black
notebook to prompt him. The internet meme machine was also in full force during
the election, while they weren’t alone in delivering a good result, they
certainly helped to mobilise the youth vote – thought to be around 70%. The
youth vote was also responsible for winning in places like Canterbury who have
had a Tory MP since 1918. There were some truly historic victories during the
evening of the 8th of June.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In Scotland,
there was a noticeable shift in attitude towards the Labour Party. Lets face
it, things couldn’t have gotten any worse after the 2015 election humiliation
and finishing third behind the Tories in last year’s Scottish parliament
elections. Scottish Labour was buoyed by a Corbyn boost, he appeared three
times in Scotland during the six week campaign culminating in an early morning,
pre-work rally the day before the general election. In 2015, Labour activists
were subjected to things like being chased with chainsaws and having election
events picketed by extreme nationalist fringe groups. Towns and cities were
plastered with stickers saying “red tories out” and doors were slammed in
faces.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Now on the doors,
people were willing to listen to what we had to say and even switch from the
SNP back to Labour because the SNP had been largely absent. The Labour campaign
was more visible in a lot of areas and as a result, the SNP vote fractured. SNP
voters either did not turn out, voted Labour or Tory.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The biggest
surprise of the night was Labour winning six seats back from the SNP in
addition to their now safe seat of Edinburgh South. The mood within the party
was that we would be having a good night if we managed to retain Edinburgh
South and win an additional seat. Some unfortunately missed out like Angela
Feeney in Motherwell and Wishaw and Matt Kerr in Glasgow South West who lost by
just 60 votes.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Whilst Labour
exceeded expectations, there is now a feeling that we could have done better.
Scottish Labour’s vote share went down in areas which until 2015, were Labour
heartlands including Renfrewshire and Ayrshire. In Paisley and Renfrewshire
North the Conservative vote went up by 15.3% and in it’s southern neighbour,
the share of the vote went up by 11.8%. Labour in North Ayrshire were knocked
into third place by the Tories.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">This is in
contrast to other deindustrialised areas in Scotland such as Midlothian, East
Lothian and Fife who all returned Labour MPs. The experience being on the doors
in these areas matched the results at the ballot box. In Midlothian the
response was very positive for Labour, but in Ayrshire, not so much.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In east coast
former mining areas and in Lanarkshire there is more of an industrial legacy
that binds working class people together in a way that it no longer does in the
West of Scotland. Particularly in Paisley and Renfrewshire – many of those who
worked in the mills here have now passed on and the experiences of mill workers
in Paisley exists only in the heads of those with parents or grandparents who
worked there. For many in the Lothians and in Lanarkshire it is still a first
hand memory.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">We also have to
recognise that there is more of a tradition of protestant loyalist unionism in
the West of Scotland. Where these people used to vote Labour in the knowledge
that the union would be safe, they now feel that the Conservative Party are
best placed to preserve the union, ironically.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Seats like
Inverclyde came within a whisker of going Labour once again and Paisley could
once again be winnable. When we look at the campaigns run by Labour candidates
in Paisley and Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and East Renfrewshire, they have a very
overtly pro-union message primarily. Jobs and the economy come secondary to the
union. </span></div>
<span style="color: black;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">What lessons
should Scottish Labour learn from this?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">We don't have to
spend lots of money to deliver victories – resources and money were pumped into
East Renfrewshire to buoy Blair McDougall. Sadly, this did nothing to boost Mr
McDougall's chances. Conversely, in Glasgow North East, Paul Sweeney's campaign
was delivered on a shoestring budget and he won.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Indyref 2 is well
and truly off the agenda now. It would serve Scottish Labour well to put it on
a back burner, too. It's time for Scottish Labour to be more ambitious and aim
for the SNP vote. Supporting the union is not and never was the raison dêtre of
the Labour Party. </span></div>
<i></i><span style="color: #0c343d;"><i></i></span><br />
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<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i><span style="color: #0c343d;"><i> </i></span></i></span></div>
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i>
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<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i><span style="color: #0c343d;"></span></i></span></div>
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><i>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The tagline for
many a left wing and Scottish Nationalist campaign against the Conservatives
was “<i>Let June be the end of May</i>”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While
that didn’t quite happen on the 331st day in Downing Street for Theresa May, it’s
a day that will be coming thanks to events from 7am last Thursday onwards.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGF8Tvk2aqIgD1AuvyV-xePr2S6PiXeQ1P-LrAwrd5ZZvzeMoD-or0OaHjsx6fLW0SJlTg_gbtfg84pIlGo_QJZObX8_IgGZnsM7ibpInEBNRuJT63DECkhVhgZKT-rpq8TlyNfMEz-_0/s1600/May-Count-2017.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="600" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGF8Tvk2aqIgD1AuvyV-xePr2S6PiXeQ1P-LrAwrd5ZZvzeMoD-or0OaHjsx6fLW0SJlTg_gbtfg84pIlGo_QJZObX8_IgGZnsM7ibpInEBNRuJT63DECkhVhgZKT-rpq8TlyNfMEz-_0/s400/May-Count-2017.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>May at her Maidstone count on the morning of 9 June 2017.<br />Yes, that is one of the candidates behind her.</i></span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">A lot has been
written about how dreadful the Tory campaign was, and how it was driven by a
left hand of May’s advisors and a right hand of Australian campaign
co-ordinator Lynton Crosby.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suspect an
awful lot more will come out, once May leaves the stage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I wonder if May herself contributed
to her downfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While we may dislike
the slimey failed PR guru that was Cameron, at least he did not hide away to
the extent that May did during the campaign.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">One other thing
strikes me with hindsight about the Tory campaign, the utter arrogance of it
all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether it was the thought that
they could go into the campaign with undercooked ideas, that refusal to engage
with normal voters or even the thought process which led to May subverting the
Fixed Terms Act (2011), it all feels like a party where complacency had smashed
in the front door and taken over their house.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If not complacency, then perhaps a curse?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly every campaign slogan thought up by
Crosby has rebounded in grand style on the Tories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Strong & Stable” lasted as long as it
took for the so called Dementia Tax to unravel, while the attack line on Corbyn’s
alleged IRA links were countered online by May’s own links to the Daesh funding
Saudi Arabian regime, whom May signed a trade deal with several months ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now that May is seeking a confidence &
supply agreement with a party with it’s own terrorist links, as well as having
views that even Daesh might consider backward, then this pretty much immunises
Corbyn from further attacks along the IRA line.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The question
though is where do the Tories go from here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At this moment, I suspect that it’s not that hopeless for them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think it’s a given that the
government will collapse in a couple of months and we could be back at the
polling stations again before the leaves turn yellow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For one thing the Tories are the great
survivors of UK politics, having adapted to so many conditions to be the
natural party of government for pretty much all of the 20th Century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For another for all of the outstanding praise
levelled at Corbyn & Co, the Tories did end up the largest party on Friday
falling 8 seats short.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a situation
which will need managing, but is not without precedent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even through a four or five year spell.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Most recently, we
have seen the SNP, under Alex Salmond wheel & deal their way through their
first term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many thought that they’d
crumble, including Scottish Labour who thought that if the SNP didn’t self
destruct then they’d win the following election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, that was before their leader went for a
sandwich. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Before that though was the
years when Labour were in office with knife edge majorities and having to
cobble together deals to stay in office.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Who knew that it would be May bringing back the 1970’s.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i>Callaghan leaves No 10 for the last time, May 4 1979</i></span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In the aftermath
of the October 1974 election, Labour emerged with a majority of 3 seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That majority soon disappeared, with Labour
soon seeking and getting a ‘confidence & supply’ deal with the
Liberals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When that collapsed the Labour
government existed on a day to day basis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was the years of long days and late nights voting which partly feeds
into Scottish Labour’s visceral hatred of the SNP, their “betrayal” over the
events when it all came crashing down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On
Wednesday 28th March 1979. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Those two
examples show that it’s possible for the Tories to cling on and survive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For May, things will be different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suspect that if the men in grey suits don’t
pay May a visit during the summer, then it will be during the October party
conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t expect her to lead
the Tories into next year’s English Local election campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As for how long the Tories cling on for, I
suspect we’ll be going to the polls again next Autumn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it won’t be for Indyref 2.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">* - </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">331 days, not
out, in office on 9 June 2017</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"></span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-65294581241371875232017-06-11T09:00:00.000+01:002017-06-11T09:00:01.164+01:00General Election 2017: Tale Of The Tape<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2VAA6zRkiZJjT8npXmueSZwWGCo3qtGyWNYwCpyWSciS4Xnfzrskeh38RzvkiRgQLG0pO9vewNr0ffgxl6N3UMdp3HKzBOErE1BCqhTgh1oWtMmCioWrAjgKHclBOxlvZ-PYL8ENdQ6w/s1600/Exit-poll-Moment-17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2VAA6zRkiZJjT8npXmueSZwWGCo3qtGyWNYwCpyWSciS4Xnfzrskeh38RzvkiRgQLG0pO9vewNr0ffgxl6N3UMdp3HKzBOErE1BCqhTgh1oWtMmCioWrAjgKHclBOxlvZ-PYL8ENdQ6w/s400/Exit-poll-Moment-17.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">About 10 minutes
to 6 on Friday Morning, Labour held on to the seat of Southampton Test.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This result made it mathematically impossible
for the Conservatives to win an outright majority, confirming a second 'hung parliament' within three elections and confirmed the exit poll announced simultaneously on BBC, ITV and
on Sky News as being an accurate forcast of what was to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had to wait until about
9pm on Friday night for the final result, Labour gaining the seat of Kensington
after a third re-count.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">This gave us a
final result of:-</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Seats</span></div>
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<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Votes</span></div>
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<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Share</span></div>
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<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Conservatives</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">318 (-13)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">13,667,231</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #0c343d;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">42.5%</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Labour</span></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">262 (+32)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">12,874,284</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">40.0%</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #bf9000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">SNP/<span style="color: #38761d;">Plaid</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #bf9000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">35 (-19)/<span style="color: #38761d;">4 (+1)</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #bf9000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">977,568/<span style="color: #38761d;">164,466</span></span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #bf9000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">3.0%/<span style="color: #38761d;">0.5%</span></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Liberal
Democrats</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">12 (+4)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">2,371,762</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">7.8%</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #741b47;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">UKIP</span></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #741b47;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">0</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #741b47;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">593,852</span></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #741b47;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">1.8%</span></span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Others</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">19</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="4" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 432.35pt;" valign="top" width="576">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Conservatives
short by 8 Seats<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Turnout – 68.7%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">A lot of the
commentary has been about May’s failure to build on her inheritance from
Cameron, about the poor election campaign and May’s ramrod refusal to engage in
televised set piece interviews and debates and of course the incident which
started the Tory rot – the manifesto including the so called ‘Dementia tax’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However it should be pointed out how many
votes the Tories still garnered in spite of a bad campaign</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">A share of 42.5%
represents the highest share of the vote for the Conservatives for 25 years,
while over 13.5 million votes is also the most votes the Conservatives have
attracted since John Major won his election in 1992.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What has thwarted the Conservatives in their
attempt to win a landslide has been the performance of Labour, who garnered
their highest share of the vote since the second of Blair’s three election wins
in 2001 (and is 4.8% <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">higher</b> than the
last of their election victories, in 2005).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In terms of votes however, you’d need to go back to the Blair landslide
of 1997 for the last time Labour attracted as many votes and the last time they
had a net gain of seats. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’d also need
to go back to June 1970 for the last Election where both parties gathered over
12 million votes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Whilst it is true
that Labour have lost this election, they clearly have momentum now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Corbyn vision of a fairer, more
equalitarian, society has attracted many voters including that constituency
which previously did not vote in big numbers – the young.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was this tempering of the figures in line
with precedent which led to pollsters predicting 7%+ leads for the Tories in
the days leading up to election day. Quite rightly, some Labour figures are
speculating why Labour lost a third election in a row.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though I suspect that the likes of McTernan,
Chris Leslie & co (speculating that a ‘better’ leader would have won) won’t
be speculating that they are <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">precisely</i>
the reason Corbyn didn’t do better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
anything cost Labour this election, look no further than McTernan, Dripping
Poison, Tom Harris and the other bitter Progress wingers in the Punderatti or
in politics who have spent two years talking down and undermining Corbyn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, it’s no coincidence that Corbyn’s
poll ratings improved substantially once election impartiality rules kicked in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is not now unconceivable that a second
General Election with May leading the Tories could see her defeated and Corbyn
entering Downing Street.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Of course, May is
not the only politician who’s ‘victory’ is somewhat pyrrhic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here in Scotland, the SNP retained 35 of the
56 seats won in 2015 which still represents their second best election
result ever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the media have
(correctly) focused on both the 21 seats lost, the loss of big hitters like Alex Salmond (below) and Angus Robertson and the 13.4% swing to the
Scottish Tories and have drawn the conclusion that this was a strong
anti-Indyref 2 vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suspect its a bit
more complicated than that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 12.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="4" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 432.35pt;" valign="top" width="576">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Scotland
Results</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Seats</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Votes</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Share</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #7f6000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">SNP</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #7f6000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">35 (-19)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #7f6000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">977,568</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #7f6000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">36.9% (-13.1)</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #073763;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Conservatives</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #073763;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">13 (+12)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #073763;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">757,949</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #073763;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">28.6% (+13.7)</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Labour</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">7 (+6)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">717,007</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">27,1% (+2.8)</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="top" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Lib Dems</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.5pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">4 (+3)</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 115.55pt;" valign="top" width="154">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">179,061</span></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 98.3pt;" valign="top" width="131">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">6.8% (-0.8)</span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">I think the
turning point in the SNP’s fortunes can be attributed to the SNP policy on a
second Independence referendum being brought forward if there was a “material
change” in the circumstances of Scotland, such as “Scotland being dragged out of
the EU against it’s will”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As time goes
on, the First Minister’s threat of a second Independence referendum in the
aftermath of the EU Referendum looks more and more like two big tactical
missteps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While it is true that the
galvanising effect of the Independence Referendum has now seen a coalescing of
a pro-UK vote around the Tories, I suspect that the trigger for this result
though is more to do with the SNP’s tying a second referendum to membership of
the EU.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">As I have said
previously, to successfully make the case for “material change”, the pro EU
vote in Scotland had to be at least 65-66%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As it fell at 62%, my conclusion is that this did not provide Sturgeon
or the SNP with the political space to pursue a second referendum and that the SNP should wait for a "material change" which Scottish voters can identify and strongly disagree with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, the SNP continued to pursue this
policy and as a result have alienated both remain and leave voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They alienated Brexit voters, including
<a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">36% of their own voters from 2015</a>, by sidelining and ignoring them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They alienated remain voters by using their
votes as a proxy to launch ‘Indyref 2’ – thus offending pro-Union pro-EU
voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, the most euro
sceptic part of Scotland voted out the resoundingly pro-EU SNP and for the more
Eurosceptic Tories, hence the defeats for Robertson, Salmond & Whiteford.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdqAaOgflo3YY8v7A-G8cWFVtmRvs1kYyDCB8v0kJ1scAVgXWyZ_5l_mYV2tNRDiXGTG3oGujTOP4fC8tmrOCC_clEx5WzDCutu_iuvyTgfa66JsaN5wunMdnxy23_sn9KMey6rTzP-mI/s1600/Salmond-loses-seat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="624" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdqAaOgflo3YY8v7A-G8cWFVtmRvs1kYyDCB8v0kJ1scAVgXWyZ_5l_mYV2tNRDiXGTG3oGujTOP4fC8tmrOCC_clEx5WzDCutu_iuvyTgfa66JsaN5wunMdnxy23_sn9KMey6rTzP-mI/s400/Salmond-loses-seat.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The punderatti
and the commentators, prompted by Ruth Davidson, rushed to bury Independence
and declare Indyref 2 dead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t
think Independence or Indyref 2 is dead, what is clearly damaged beyond repair
is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand plan for a referendum before the end of divorce
proceedings with the EU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This election
is clear proof of what I’ve been saying since the EU referendum, that a second
independence referendum is not winnable this side of Brexit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If anything, this election result should act
as a huge wake up call for the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
them, they should dial back the talk of a second referendum and have a long
look at how they can win a referendum starting with a proper autopsy on the
2014 campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think there is one
other factor at play for the SNP’s drop in vote, a factor completely unrelated
to Independence.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The SNP
themselves have run a pretty poor campaign, one not highlighting the work their
MP’s did but putting their Holyrood team and its leadership front and centre,
thus making the difficulties that the SNP government are having regarding
health and education a part of the narrative of this election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clearly then the poor performance of the SNP
government will be something they will now have time to put right before the
next Holyrood elections. This also is the second campaign in a row where they
have run a New Labour-esque campaign with included inconsistencies, a campaign
which quite easily got outflanked by Corbyn’s Labour party. It could be argued
that Scottish Labour have made a similar tactical mistake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That Scottish Labour only picked up six seats
is not a signifier of the SNP’s strength but of Scottish Labour’s refusal to
campaign on the Corbyn manifesto.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you
look at the results, there are now 6 SNP held seats with majorities under 650
votes (Gethins in North East Fife, Wishart in Perth & North Perthshire,
Glasgow South West, Glasgow East, Airdrie & Shotts and Lanark &
Hamilton East) and in good place for a number of others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whatever ‘Scottish’ Labour types think of
Corbyn, the policies he proposes are much more in tune with Scottish thinking
than any attempt to ape the Ulster unionists and their Scottish copyists.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The result of this
election has come slightly from leftfield, both the Tories thought they’d be on
their way to a 70+ majority while the SNP, their social media cheerleaders
and...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well... me... simply did not see
the level of losses they would suffer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
wrote a couple of weeks about 1997 and how that election was a gamechanger in
the mould of 1945 and 1979.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
election has the feel of being the precursor election, where the pieces are moving
into place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With signs of the country
moving leftwards and the SNP losing seats, maybe this is the election where the
move away from the cosy right wing consensus at Westminster began.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-772719065649058492017-06-07T20:00:00.000+01:002017-06-07T20:00:42.552+01:00Final Lingering Thoughts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">So now, the end
is near in this strangest of election campaigns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Called six weeks ago but with the air of
being conducted in a mad dash – thanks in no small part to the two acts of mass
murder by idiot flat earthers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
before voting commences we have the now traditional last thoughts post.</span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjG2t_EIqcQ7x4HoTtz9OIkKt75td5-KLkl-R365DXHtKjlGNVz18oY13EFU7t8TXGXDN3dB-0T-nEWc88vlXRJMBcha5c39oOac1xJKNeeI2PoEIYDmFDy_9pdN0ZqLTts0sCq5ofkRM/s1600/ted-heath-10-downing-st-702.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="716" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjG2t_EIqcQ7x4HoTtz9OIkKt75td5-KLkl-R365DXHtKjlGNVz18oY13EFU7t8TXGXDN3dB-0T-nEWc88vlXRJMBcha5c39oOac1xJKNeeI2PoEIYDmFDy_9pdN0ZqLTts0sCq5ofkRM/s400/ted-heath-10-downing-st-702.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">The shock aftermath of the first post war June election sees Ted Heath win a<br />30 seat majority, 19 June 1970. Will we see a similar shock tomorrow?</span></span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>The Worst Conservative
Campaign...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ever:</b></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Before the campaign started all of the
punderatti were confidently predicting 100+ majorities for May & the
Tories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not anymore as the Tories
manifesto pledges went down witht he electorate like a bucket of cold
sick.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In truth the polls started moving
before the manifesto launch, with voters not liking the repeated catchphrase of
“Strong and Stable”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A phrase we’ve not
really heard that much since May junked her flagship policy.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The so called
Dementia Tax – the proposal for people to have to sell their homes to fund long
term care – caused an immediate reaction among voters and saw the first sudden
drop in Conservative support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>May’s unprecedented
(and it is – David Butler, the doyen of television psephology said this is the
first time he has seen a Prime Minister seeking re-election scrap such a high
profile policy) review coupled with May’s car crash interview (yet another unprecedented
moment, even if Neil was in second gear) has combined to give the Tories the
worst start to an election campaign since...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>well Major in 1997 was never this bad.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Since then the
haemorrhaging of percentage points has been slow and stable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Tories might still win by a landslide,
but it won’t be the big stonking majority envisaged by May during her Easter
walking trip in Wales. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>Corbyn Has
Revived Labour:</b></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In sharp contrast Corbyn’s
campaign has not been the unmitigated disaster the Labour ‘moderates’ feared
(or secretly hoped for).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has
outperformed May during the Neil Interviews, the Paxman thing and turned up at
last week’s BBC debate – besting May’s stand in, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His Manifesto has been better received than
many thought and overall his ‘zen’ approach has won over (some) sceptics.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">But yet, I don’t
expect Corbyn to be kissing hands at some point on Friday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I rather suspect the damage has been done
with voters, in no small thanks to the Progress wingers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also think that Scottish Labour’s campaign,
of ‘standing up to the SNP’ is embarrassing and will do them more harm than
good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Scottish voters do start to
vote for Labour again and Corbyn somehow finds himself in power, it will be
entertaining to see the likes of Murray sit on the backbenches having to suck
it up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>UKIP Are History:</b></span>
Last year, we voted in the EU Referendum and voted to leave the EU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UKIP clearly see themselves as the keeper of
the Brexit flame and are marketing themselves as the party to keep Westminster’s
“feet to the fire”, to openly steal a line from the aftermath of another
referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The voters clearly disagree
as polling suggests their vote has tanked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They might be good for by-elections...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>err, maybe not since they haven’t won 1 with their own
candidates...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but in election terms,
they’re toast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where those 4m voters
from 2 years ago goes....<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>hmmm.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhELN8_saNpbCclvjzv-pe4wWM5jCzOSV52VhNQQ6NSXxl3sTe3f7LYP_8DmVJl3LUgODwbBO3MJdx8lVNc2F68xEDRT99egrLQDoP_G8hKi3wa4N16Lr1eB930rSTPkkYSV62T3CD60DU/s1600/May-v-Neil.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhELN8_saNpbCclvjzv-pe4wWM5jCzOSV52VhNQQ6NSXxl3sTe3f7LYP_8DmVJl3LUgODwbBO3MJdx8lVNc2F68xEDRT99egrLQDoP_G8hKi3wa4N16Lr1eB930rSTPkkYSV62T3CD60DU/s400/May-v-Neil.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Andrew Neil's interview with Prime Minister May, on 22 May, is seen<br />as the turning point of this election.</span></span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";"><span style="color: #134f5c;"><b>Peak ‘Nat’ is
Well & Truly Over:</b></span> I’d said this in the aftermath of the Scottish local
elections about 5 weeks ago and this election campaign has provided further
proof of this as the SNP have endured their toughest election campaign in some
time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Partly this is
down to people beginning to judge the SNP’s performance in Holyrood and shadow
project onto Westminster, but I think this is as well a consequence of the SNP’s
tactical blunder in the aftermath of the EU Referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A blunder I’ve discussed ad nauseam, but to
refresh your memory the claim that the result of the EU referendum is a ‘material
change’ to trigger a second Independence referendum has not gone down well
polling wise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This appears to be feeding
into this election.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The other reason
for this is, I think, because the SNP have not run a particularly great
campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Granted, we’ve not seen the
fruits of having 56 SNP MP’s at Westminster, however the SNP’s campaign focuses
too much on stopping the Tories rather than what the SNP can do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also think that having the First Minister
as a very visible figurehead at every media event doesn’t really do anything
for the public image of the SNP’s MP’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There are some very good SNP MP’s, there are some who are iconic, but
there are some who are anonymous and they all could do with a lot more public
awareness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My own sitting MP for
example, I can’t remember the last time I saw Black being interviewed on
television.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The good news for
the SNP is that we’re three years (I think) away from the next bloc of
elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Plenty of time for them to
regain their grip on the task of government and to rethink their next
steps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not to rush into a second
referendum having learned no lessons from 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That way lies defeat and First Minister Ruth Davidson... <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Tomorrow then,
what will happen?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The polls show that
the Tories still lead, but by varying amounts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think that Theresa May will still be Prime Minister on Friday, with an
overall majority of about 30-40 seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is slightly down on what I thought in mid April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I give it until lunchtime Friday before we
see ‘Dripping Poison’ calling for Corbyn to go.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You’ll maybe see something about this Progressive Alliance party next
week. I think the Lib Dem’s will lose seats in England, but will pick up seats
here in Scotland & I think the SNP will not lose more than 9 seats.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">See you on the
other side then.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-55837380384260629152017-06-07T08:00:00.000+01:002017-06-07T08:00:15.352+01:00The Other Two<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">In an election
campaign where time is now very much of the essence (thanks, Wahabists!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mind and enjoy the silence from your so
called god now) I’ve had to roll the last two election leaflets into the one
post.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though, in all honestly both the
Lib Dem’s and the independent candidate Paul Mack will probably be fight it out
to not finish last.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Steven and Gillian
from New Order, they aren’t.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dkplCVc35ZnGYZF7dYU8WveXz_saESFWwLzxZGMJJM49YDcXbR70w-Mc6uNvFPwkefRz-SEuVd7_0i86Vkx8jHdsRm_O5G8u2u_Xl4g-R2Jn4ZstOO0BqFAM_KLFPPfGvV8IVI9s7Eg/s1600/P1020260.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5dkplCVc35ZnGYZF7dYU8WveXz_saESFWwLzxZGMJJM49YDcXbR70w-Mc6uNvFPwkefRz-SEuVd7_0i86Vkx8jHdsRm_O5G8u2u_Xl4g-R2Jn4ZstOO0BqFAM_KLFPPfGvV8IVI9s7Eg/s320/P1020260.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Once again Eileen
McCartin is the Lib Dem’s candidate for this constituency, having stood in the
Holyrood election in 2011, last time around two years ago and I think at last
years Holyrood election too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This time
the Lib Dem’s are running on backing a second European Referendum whilst
blocking a second Independence Referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The worst of both worlds you could say.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Like Labour and
the Tories, there are no real arguments for blocking a second Independence
referendum in McCartin’s leaflet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though
interestingly, McCartin’s leaflet claims that “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">we took the lead in the campaign against Independence across large
parts of Scotland at the last referendum</i>” somehow isn’t stimulating the
grey cells.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure there were prominent
Lib Dems, the late Charles Kennedy springs to mind, who were making a decent
argument for a no vote but there were others who were prominent members of the
Tory led coalition government ( Danny Alexander among others) reminding us how
useless they were.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the whole though,
this was a Tory funded exercise with Labour faces prominent in the campaign.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The big problem
with this leaflet is the argument being portrayed, that Brexit and Independence
are extreme positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the
failures in this country of centralist politics pursued by Blair and McCartin’s
own Orange Book colleagues, it is disingenuous to attack parties and voters for
looking for different solutions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
also extraordinarily hypocritical for the Lib Dems to call for investment in
public services given they sold their souls to the Tories for ministerial
limo’s.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">The last
contender, and the spoiler in Paisley’s stab at being the UK’s second all woman
election (which makes Glasgow Central the only constituency with all women
candidates) is the independent Paul Mack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One of the last local councillors to appear in the ‘Rotten Boroughs’
column in Private Eye – Mack was a frequent name in those pages during the mid
1990’s alongside Hugh Henry and the SNP’s Bruce Fee as the old Renfrew District
Council featured rather frequently.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">Mack’s leaflet
centres on the big issue in Paisley, much more than Labour’s – the proposed
closure of the Children’s ward at the RAH.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Like Labour, Mack aims both barrels at the SNP calling the consultation
process “An old fashioned stitch up”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Quite where Renfrewshire Council’s former, Labour, leader Mr McMillan
fits in with Mack’s conspiracy theory I’m not actually sure. Stooge?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SNP Patsy?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Mack doesn’t say. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">As befits a
candidate very much against politician largesse, Mack’s other pledges centre
around transparency and public service.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is, in all honesty, not an awful lot I can argue against, but it
does raise questions about Mack’s conscience “(I) will be answerable and
accountable only to the people of Paisley, not party interests in Edinburgh or
London and still act in the best interests of my conscience, my constituency
and my country”.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "sans-serif";">If we were being
entirely honest, both of these candidates do not have a cat in hells chance of
victory at some point on Friday morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The likely outcome here in Paisley is an SNP hold with a very much
reduced majority – Labour do not look as if they will pull off the swing
required to win here in Paisley.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s
not to say Mack and the Lib Dem’s are irrelevant but in a truncated campaign
like this, the temptation is there to squeeze the minority parties out in
favour of the mainstream message.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-15850870933946635612017-06-06T12:00:00.000+01:002017-06-06T12:00:21.850+01:00In Another Country<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The general
narrative of this election has been the apparent surge in popularity of
Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His run
of out of his skin performances on debates and one on one interviews with local
boy done well Andrew Neil and Jeremy Paxman and also that his policies are
proving to be rather popular.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether
this popularity translates into votes is quite clearly another matter, however
the most perplexing aspect of this campaign is the reluctance of Scottish Labour
to tap into Corbyn’s soft radical programme and use it as a driver to attract
voters here in Scotland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This brings us,
once again to Ms Alison Dowling.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgQ-spB2D6n4BfBeVp9XiVFCWmCSZvv2rG5MIgZQY-XsxU_DeRKesv0Pw81jDW0xgcOkK_mFanswMNkOGcEGAipjie6X437akJv7JPB5KygvKs4_zyMFuo-t9ZM-aRj2qEmZo8QyivW4g/s1600/scan0003.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="947" data-original-width="1600" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgQ-spB2D6n4BfBeVp9XiVFCWmCSZvv2rG5MIgZQY-XsxU_DeRKesv0Pw81jDW0xgcOkK_mFanswMNkOGcEGAipjie6X437akJv7JPB5KygvKs4_zyMFuo-t9ZM-aRj2qEmZo8QyivW4g/s400/scan0003.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">You may remember
(given that this particular post is among the best read posts in the past month,
you’ve probably read it quite recently too) that Ms Dowling first came to
prominence penning an <a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/open-letter-to-alison-dowling.html">open letter</a> calling for us to support the then local MP
and shadow Foreign Secretary – Douglas Alexander.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That letter clearly worked a treat as
Alexander...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>er... was swept aside in
the so called “SNP Tsunami” being defeated by the SNP’s own wunderkind Mhari
Black.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s small consolation then that
Paisley & Renfrewshire South is fourth on Labour’s winnable seats target
list.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A swing of 6.2% would put Scottish
Labour in with a chance of winning this seat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And Labour have picked the health worker that penned that open letter
two years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is it about nurses
in this election?</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Like the Tories
leaflet, Dowling’s campaign fire is targeted at the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hardly surprising given the SNP did win 56
seats last time out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And like the
Tories, there is a bar chart involved with both the Tories and the Lib Dem’s
shown as small as possible (though to be honest, they did only pick up 7.6% and
2.2% of the share of the vote last time).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Unlike the Tories, Labour are attacking a party which purports to be the
modern standard bearer of Labour (or centre left) values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That there is so much political cross dressing
between those two parties alone contributes to the most bitter, spiteful and
hate filled relationship between two different parties in UK politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a relationship that the English left
certainly doesn’t get, and I personally think is akin to squabbling children.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">As a result we
have a leaflet attacking the SNP, but their record in Holyrood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As I’ve previously pointed out, the SNP at
Holyrood have adopted a New Labour-esque policy platform, their Westminster
contingent have been much more recognisably left wing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is that political space which Labour are
attempting to target.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem is
that in attempting this, they have effectively sidelined much of Corbyn’s
manifesto – with a section on “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">standing
up for working people</i>” being the only mention of Corbyn’s priorities.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">While there are
mentions of being opposed to a second Independence referendum, there is no
mention of Labour’s stance on Brexit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On
Independence, like the Tory leaflet there’s no explanation as to why Labour are
opposed to a second referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead
the equivalent to “Strong and Stable” is “divisive Independence referendum” –
without recognition that the divisiveness is a by-product of neither side
winning the argument on Scotland’s future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s ridiculousness to the extreme to complain about divisiveness, life
is divisive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem is that both
sides haven’t stopped campaigning; this is why we have such an entrenched
Scotland-view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With few hardy souls
prepared to look at a different point of view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Where there is more traction, I think, is the other phrase repeated in
this leaflet “<i>Get on with the day job</i>”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">There are however
flaws in the approach taken by Scottish Labour in solely attacking the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The current hot topic here in Paisley is the
proposed closure of the Children’s Ward at the RAH, a proposal put forward by
Greater Glasgow Health Board.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
founder of the campaign to save the ward has called for unity and a cross party
campaign in spite of Scottish Labour’s continued attempts to spin this to their
advantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We see this here with Dowling
pledging to “Protect the RAH” as the “SNP Government are threatening the
closure of this ward”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given that Labour
has representation on the GGHB committee which sanctioned this closure and made
other decisions to downgrade the RAH in favour of the new Southern General
hospital in Glasgow, this is rather disingenuous to say the least (and if
anyone thinks that I think the SNP are completely blameless, see my previous
post on this episode). </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">In only having a
small, un-credited, space highlighting Corbyn’s manifesto, I think Dowling has
made a tactical error. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think this
leaflet should have tapped into the main Labour campaign an awful lot more and
I think it should have sidelined the obsession with a second Independence
referendum (which isn’t going to happen this side of the divorce with the EU
anyway).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking at Dowling’s leaflet,
it’s a missed opportunity and like the Scottish Labour campaign as a whole may
end up putting off voters thinking of voting Labour because of Corbyn’s manoeuvring
of Labour to the left of centre.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-41647298085519768742017-06-05T12:00:00.000+01:002017-06-05T12:00:26.836+01:00The No Party<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">One of the long
standing jokes of electioneering is the Lib Dem’s persistent use of bar graph’s
to show that, in their view, “only they can win here”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Normally these graphs are ludicrous because
they downplay rivals and have an overinflated view of their own chances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here in Paisley & Renfrewshire South, the
laughable graphs have arrived – but it is both the Tories and Labour that have
used them.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXs6MrVfIXg7QCwuSy7ZdQ88kLeZz-vij_daFzOfnD8f-IIeYAM5bfT8woSCJrvmAp5FOT1smZaH0VjJgrWFK8idyaBL4LrHm9kox2xFfqFNXLq6sKemQi6urD5n6mhtiNkIJ-yeXCH4/s1600/scan0002.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1127" data-original-width="1600" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXs6MrVfIXg7QCwuSy7ZdQ88kLeZz-vij_daFzOfnD8f-IIeYAM5bfT8woSCJrvmAp5FOT1smZaH0VjJgrWFK8idyaBL4LrHm9kox2xFfqFNXLq6sKemQi6urD5n6mhtiNkIJ-yeXCH4/s400/scan0002.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">We will see
Labour’s grab at comedy gold in the next post, but the Tories graph (right) is
surprisingly prominent for a party whose Scottish manifesto is based solely on
a two letter word.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is also based, not
on the last Westminster elections here (where the Tories finished a distant
third to Labour and the SNP) or the recent council elections here (where the
Tories finished third, 7% points, on first preference votes, behind Labour )
but on one Panelbase poll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From
April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It may be inconvenient for the
Tories to quote the recent polls but they are now in a fight for second place
with Labour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So much for Adam Tomkins
rant at Blair McDougall to “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">get out of
the way</i>” of a clear shot at Kirstin Oswald in the constituency five minutes
up the road from here.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The most
surprising aspect of Amy Thomson’s leaflet is that being anti a second
Independence referendum is not the entire leaflet as some of the leaflets from
the Tories have been. Thomson’s leaflet does reference opposition to a so
called second Independence referendum but also flags up the vague promises that
all politicians make – campaign to secure local jobs and provide more opportunities
for young people, support our local high streets and small businesses and to
fight for a stronger national and local economy – yet for a party which
intended to make this the Brexit election there is no mention of that
referendum or of the phrase “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">strong and
stable</i>”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">While Thomson’s
leaflet is clearly pitching to the so called ‘55%’, there is a strange quote on
the front – “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">You have my guarantee that
the Scottish Conservatives will oppose the SNP every step of the way</i>”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is strange because there are actually
some policy area’s that the SNP and the Tories share common ground on – low
business taxes being a prime example (in another life both Hosie & Swinney
would, I suspect, have been leaders in a centre right party in Scotland). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Thomson’s leaflet
highlight’s the problem that the Tories have had in this election in that all
of the eye-catching policies have fallen apart under scrutiny leaving very
little in the way of selling points. Sure the Scottish Tories have alighted on
a strong defence of the union as a policy position, and here any detailed case
for being pro-UK is not forthcoming, but if you look past that there’s nothing
but Thomson’s vague pledges. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">This is a problem
when the Tories policy positions are not popular positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They may not be the only party culpable in
this, but a hard ‘Brexit’ is proving unpopular with big business, the Education
industry, life & science businesses and other ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">saboteurs</i>’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their policy on
care for the elderly, the so called ‘Dementia tax’ proved to be an idea dead on
delivery and the catalyst for the Tories disastrous campaign, while ‘austerity’
has not been taken off the table with cuts to the benefits budget proving to be
not popular again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What’s so far not
received any coverage is the plan to remove dismantle the Serious Fraud Office,
bringing it under government control and rolling it’s responsibilities into the
National Crime agency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An idea designed
to green light all sorts of corruption in this country.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">She may have
mentioned the party she is standing for, but apart from being anti a second
Independence referendum Thomson’s leaflet clearly disowns the campaign and
manifesto her party are fighting in parts other than Scotland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The vague priorities quoted do not stack up
with the Tories plans and do not look credible when compared to the Tories
record.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-64318296937974530632017-06-01T00:01:00.000+01:002017-06-01T00:22:35.890+01:00The 'Where's Theresa' DebateWith the enforced mid campaign break, all the hustings events are now begining to pile up. Earlier saw the last big set piece debate (though I think there might be one "Scottish" debate, as well as the Question Time set pieces) and the themes of this election were all discussed. Including the theme of the inability of our Prime Minister to debate with the canditates for her job.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJWqaNh217W8D5OEjDEW4PkNYoCa43LFcXOGD4IGEqIFU7uai8LtqsByFbielY9C7syPgiAzqM04RZRFDXy3L1SnYxqPCJU5zBf07QfmGjsuqY4QNEAduajPIEsOPvsVz7F-7imR-G4D0/s1600/BBC-7partydebate-2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="780" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJWqaNh217W8D5OEjDEW4PkNYoCa43LFcXOGD4IGEqIFU7uai8LtqsByFbielY9C7syPgiAzqM04RZRFDXy3L1SnYxqPCJU5zBf07QfmGjsuqY4QNEAduajPIEsOPvsVz7F-7imR-G4D0/s400/BBC-7partydebate-2017.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Both Lucas & Faron brought this up, though Lucas was the best performer in this debate. Lucas brought up the UK's policy of selling arms to the country which brought the world Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia and also was scathing in her comments about Brexit & UKIP's little Englander mindset. Paul Nuttall looked uncomfortable at times and cut a frustrated figure as Lucas, Corbyn, Robertson & Faron took it in turns to attack his racist outlook. The comment that really cut him to the quick though was Wood's quip "In the real world, there's no such thing as a free divorce, you have to
pay your dues... we know all about blokes like you".<br />
<br />
If Nuttall was the loser of the parpicipants in the debate, the big loser was the Prime Minister. She was attacked and ridiculed at every opportunity for not taking part, while afterwards during an interview on BBC News channel, Emily Thornbury (correctly) called May a coward. In her place, the Tories put forward the Home Secretary Amber Rudd, who actually performed okay. Certainly she performed much better than May did during the Andrew Neil interview and the Paxman... thing. Lets not forget though that she was a strong performer during last years EU referendum debate, uttering the line about Boris (Johnson) and car keys, a performance that possibly got her the promotion to Home Secretary. If May remains in Downing Street after next Friday (and polls suggest it's entirely down to turnout), then we shouldn't be surprised if May is replaced within months. And the name of Amber Rudd might well be on a list of possible successors.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, Corbyn did well. He has certainly performed better than expected during this election, putting Rudd under pressure on living standards & benefits. There were moments, during the discussion regarding immigration though, where he looked uncomfortable under attack from the SNP's Angus Robertson, but he did very well.<br />
<br />
You did read that right, Angus Robertson. I'm always bemused that Robertson doesn't get more of a run out, given the good press he gets. It's not as if he's the SNP's Westminster leader or anything like that. He did have some good attack lines - on immigration and by bringing up terrorist attacks not perpetrated by Wahhabists. The thing about Robertson though is that there's a touch of the Paddy Ashdown's about him. His arguments delivered with the air of pious indignation. Corbyn asked Robertson two questions - about if he remembers us having a vote on the EU and why doesn't his party end austerity through the powers of the Scottish Parliament - and Robertson plainly blanked them both, embarking on another speech instead.<br />
<br />
Unlike two years ago when Cameron emerged unscathed from the 7 party debate, you couldn't say the same about Rudd. That debate took place right at the start of proceedings though and marked the high point of Ed Milliband's campaign. This time, this debate can be seen as a firm continuation of the election narative. Labour performing better than expected, the Tories underperforming, UKIP collapsing and the SNP being beligerant in the face of a loss in support. If the Tories do not win with a majority bigger than the current 12, then this election will be seen as a political miscalculation which firmly knocks the First Minister's own referendum miscalculation into a cocked hat.Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4738845518977466560.post-59298095309602368352017-05-31T10:00:00.000+01:002017-05-31T10:00:25.950+01:00A Lesson In Talking Left And Acting Right<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">With us now into
the final full week of this election campaign, it is strange that the SNP had
not been able to unveil their election manifesto until now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is arguable whether this has been a
hindrance or not as the election leaflet received so far by them is not a list
of priorities but a list of “greatest hits”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Akin somewhat to a band who put out one good
album before their label released them from their contract and subsequently
putting out said singles collection package.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDjx-exBgebQGpg0FiOoB7XdOh1vwKFF3x0FAB3D53pP1U-ETjsBxYKSt4QZECdmhsBIcAKno7v3UgxA8NXhbcEltv22PlW2y8ShwHLb3Pv7ABq7B-I4eDsxZWKdHee0pI7lCauiqG9J0/s1600/scan0001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1127" data-original-width="1600" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDjx-exBgebQGpg0FiOoB7XdOh1vwKFF3x0FAB3D53pP1U-ETjsBxYKSt4QZECdmhsBIcAKno7v3UgxA8NXhbcEltv22PlW2y8ShwHLb3Pv7ABq7B-I4eDsxZWKdHee0pI7lCauiqG9J0/s400/scan0001.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">That the SNP
member seeking re-election in this case is one Ms Black kind of typifies the
SNP’s approach to this election – face leftwards at Westminster whilst ignoring
the (pragmatism driven) New Labour agenda being pursued by their Holyrood
colleagues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence at Tuesday’s manifesto
launch we have seen the SNP pledge to protect all manner of benefits and to
propose various tax policies – policies which the SNP government seem to be
unwilling to pursue.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">We can understand
the rationale for wishing to protect benefits, after all not every inch of the
DWP has been cloned and transplanted northwards. DLA and it successor PIP will
still be Westminster (mis)run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However
there is some issue surrounding what the SNP can and can’t do regarding the
powers that have been transplanted northwards with the Tories and Scottish
Labour claiming Tax Credits (including Child Tax credits – centre of the
controversy surrounding the so called “Rape Clause”) is under Holyrood
jurisdiction (the government website states that Holyrood can “top up” Universal
& Tax Credits but presumably not amend or scrap those UK wide benefits).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Surprisingly the SNP aren’t playing the “we
were blocked from devolving all Benefits powers” card yet, though if this row
develops, it’ll be a matter of time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">On the leaflet,
Ms Black highlights her work fighting against the various benefits cuts and the
WASPI campaign (fighting for equal pension rights).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whilst this is very admirable and a plus
point (and I’m sorry if that sounds patronising, it’s not meant to be), I
wonder if this experience could (and perhaps should) be of further use to the
SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last year’s Holyrood prospectus was
a bland, conservative affair given the imminent powers transfer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It should not be beyond the wit and wisdom of
the SNP to use Black’s findings and Freedman’s experience to fashion a benefits
system robust enough to take Scotland into the first years of
Independence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe I digress, but it is
a moot point worthy of consideration ahead of the next Holyrood elections.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Similarly, the
SNP have said that they would like a 50% tax rate across all of the UK, but
have currently no plans to bring this in here in Scotland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reasons given seem wooly – related to
being a green light for people to leave Scotland and head south.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coupled with their plan for the 50% rate to
kick in at £150,000 (rather than Labour’s policy of it kicking in at about
£130,000 – still above where i think it should be) leaves me to thing that the
SNP are still wedded to Laffer thinking, that low taxation rates bring
prosperity.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">There is two
points that came to mind with the SNP launch however.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first is that the ambition shown and
policy depth and reach espoused by Sturgeon... am I alone in thinking that we
should have heard similar noises <a href="http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/the-conservative-party.html">last year</a>?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I don’t remember very much last year about what the SNP wanted to do
with a third term – second referendum apart. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were baby boxes – a fine idea so simple
that you wonder why no one else thought about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that’s it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that’s maybe my complaint as a whole
about the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">There are many
small things that the SNP propose and have done, but there is not one ‘legacy’
policy among them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think Free Care for
the Elderly (McLeish), scrapping Clause 28 (Dewar) and the smoking ban in pubs
(McConnell).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve said before that
reform of the NHS and other public services (democratisation of the health
boards and a standards body for local authorities being two ideas I think are
worth pursuing) should be on the table and that the SNP, more than Scottish
Labour, were in a position to pursue those policies. It’s very strange to see
the SNP willing to think outside the box for Westminster elections but be
resolutely conservative in their approach to Holyrood.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">The other point
is that those referendums are never far from the surface, and it was again with
Sturgeon pursuing the line about Tory Brexit and being dragged out of the EU
against ‘our’ wishes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That the person
who said that “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">there is no such thing as
soft Brexit, just hard Brexit or no Brexit</i>” was the president of the
European Council, Donald Tusk, seems to have bypassed the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The desire to hand the UK a punishment
beating from Tusk, Junker and Verhoffstadt (though interestingly, the European
Parliament is thought to want to reign in Verhoffstadt) has also bypassed the
SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It once again reinforces the SNP’s
worldview that Westminster Thatcherism is bad, but EU sourced Thatcherism is
good (even if Verhoffstadt is from the Belgian left), which is a simplistic and
incorrect way of seeing things. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Interestingly,
and wisely, Sturgeon does appear to be making babysteps away from a referendum
in the Autumn of 2018 by saying one could be held after the negotiations have been
completed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve already said a second
referendum is unwinnable this side of divorce proceedings from the EU and my
view is unaltered, I wonder if that is permeating SNP thinking hence the small,
strategic, retreat (though not enough to scare the fundamentalists). If this
were the case, it does not seem to be in tandem with any learning of lessons
from 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly I do not think an
Independence referendum can be won without a promise of a debate on whether we
should join the EU (bearing in mind that last years referendum was dominated by
a UKIP agenda, so a proper debate on the merits and democratic pitfalls of
joining should be given exposure, alongside acknowledgment that free movement
is a good thing which doesn’t work here because of social mobility issues) in
the future. 38% of the SNP’s 2015 voters voted for Brexit, put off by the
calamities of the CAP and the common fisheries policies, so any Independence campaign
needs to bring those people back onside first.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">Whilst the SNP
can claim that Labour have borrowed (back) some of their policies under Corbyn,
the SNP seem less keen on it being pointed out the debt they owe to the New
Labour playbook.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yip it is true (thanks
to Labour’s... er... identity issues) that the SNP have been the only
opposition at Westminster, but looking at Black’s leaflet a lot of the work
undertaken by the SNP have been below the radar, on select committees and
private member bills. If the narrative of this election so far has been the
choice being between flawed candidates and flawed policy positions, the SNP’s
prospectus may be less flawed than the others but still has serious issues –
depending on which side you stood on in any of those two referendums.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";">For all that the
SNP talk of being progressive, they’ve continued the mistake of airbrushing the
(just under)2 fifths of Scottish voters who voted for Brexit out of the
equation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a mistake that looks more
and more costly the closer we get to election day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a mistake that could eventually put a
second independence referendum off the table.</span></div>
Allanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13574173214924437278noreply@blogger.com0