Game On?

A couple of weeks ago, the much belegred Yes Scotland campaign received a boost with a Panelbase poll that showed for the first time in this referendum campaign a lead for those supporting Independence.  It lead to pro-Independence supporters to claim that it was now “Game on” for the referendum.

The problem with that claim is of course that every other poll has shown a majority in support for the status quo.  Indeed, the first thought that popped into my head when the poll emerged was outlier.  Taking that into account and the fact that this poll was the first poll since January 2012 to show support for Independence over 40%, this looked like an anomaly.  Visiting US polling guru Nate Silver evidently thought so when he called the referendum in favour of the “No” camp (with the caveat that a major crisis in England could make a yes vote more likely).  Yet, while I think that it is highly likely that Scotland will vote “No” this time next year (and there are plenty of reasons, all of then based on “Yes Scotlands” wretched campaign), why is there that small element of uncertainty over this poll.

What seems to have gone unnoticed is that polling support for a no vote is actually falling.  Apart from a Yougov poll at the start of September, you have to go back to May for a poll to put support for the status quo over 50%.  Most polls since then have put support for the status quo in the high forties.  All of this could suggest that rather than any successful “Yes” campaign, the pro-Independence supporter’s best chance of a “yes” vote could well be the unfolding landscape at Westminster and the rise of the right wing there, with UKIP pulling the Conservative’s rightwards.

Henry McLeish identified this phenomenon in a piece for The Scotsman last month, however even he must have been struck by the divergence in attitudes and policy over the past couple of months.  The Spare Room Subsidy, a policy so bad that it makes both Swinney’s Sterling Zone policy and the Dangerous Dogs act look like works of genius, continues to be popular with the government and HM Opposition.

Labour’s procrastination over whether to scrap a policy that deserves the notorious handle of The Bedroom Tax has caused serious problems for Scottish Labour.  Both Annas Sarwar and Jackie Ballie have at best looked foolhardy in trying to claim that the next Labour government would scrap the Bedroom Tax, in spite of the deafening silence from the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary on the subject.  It was rather strange to see that Baillie was slapped down for her comments, but not Sarwar.  So, a penny for the thoughts of the Better Together canvassers I met a year ago on that subject and a separate penny on the subject of the Royal Mail.

In among the coverage of this part of Osborne’s rather obvious fire sale, there was no indication over what would happen to the Universal Service Agreement, which has obvious implications for rural Scotland.  I don’t seem to have the Better Together leaflet (that prompted this post) anymore, but I’m sure that their willingness to keep the UK’s seat in the Security Council at the UN rather trumped their willingness to protect the Royal Mail.

With a year to go, Yes Scotland still has an awful campaign with so many questions still to answer.  However it is conceivable they might still win thanks to Westminster’s intransigence towards this referendum.  It could be that the people who will help Salmond towards his aim could well be the people who push Scotland out of the UK door, Cameron, Osborne & Milliband.   In short, people are now noticing the mass of contradictions at the heart of the “Better Together” campaign.  Maybe, against all the odds, it is “Game on” after all.

Great Scot’s And Not Great Scot’s

It is the 25th anniversary of the publication of the “Who’s Who in Scotland” book.  To “celebrate”, the publishers are asking who the greatest Scot of the past 25 years is, or who has made the most outstanding contribution to Scotland over the last quarter of a century.
There’s not a clear cut favourite for this accolade.  Blair, Brown & Dewar probably have the best case, but also have serious question marks against them.  Electoral arithmetic has conspired against Salmond, while Robin Cook was wasted as Foreign Secretary.  Any thought’s you might have are welcome (I think you might be able to vote through the website or by e-mailing the publishers if you are interested).  Certainly those who buy the book, and those who appear in the book (like for example my fiancee, who will be, i am proud to say,  apearing for the second year in a row) have a vote.
Perhaps an even more interesting question would be who do you think is the Scot who has had an adverse effect on life in Scotland over the past 25 years, the Scot who has through the course of their work set Scotland back?  A couple of people spring to mind, Brian Souter and Cardinal Winning for their role in the “Keep The Clause” campaign. Fred Goodwin oh and Brian Adams MSP for backing Trumptown.
My nomination though would have to be someone who inadvertently has turned Labour from a party which campaigned for the poor and less well off to a party that sounds as if it would rather get stuck into the SNP.  Step forward Rosemary McKenna, the former MP for Cumbernauld, who as chair of the committee to pick Labour candidates for the inaugural Scottish Parliament elections helped to chose a group that were either uninspiring policy wonks, or came from Labour’s “municipalist” wing.  Former councillors who were well versed in the dark arts of taminy hall politics.  Ok the brief was to pick leadership loyalists, but the fact is that in picking the candidates no Ken Livingstone/Alun Michael style controversy erupted here. 
Yet it’s only really in the past parliament where the folly in picking candidates loyal to the great leader has been shown up.  After Wendy Alexander’s resignation, there was not one really outstanding candidate to lead Labour.  Iain Gray won that race, and has struggled to show that he has more charisma than a clothes pole since.  Whether he can formulate the policies which will see him ensconced in Bute House remains to be seen.  It is more likely that Labour will win by attacking the SNP’s record in office, than by unveiling some sort of popular policy initiative, like the Lib Dem’s £10,000 tax threshold which was simple and showed common sense. 
That there does not appear to be anyone capable of standing up for ordinary Scots, and in an eloquent & articulate fashion within the Labour party is something of a betrayal of their traditions, and can be traced back to the selection of candidates for the 1999 Scottish elections.  Like I said, I think that the question of who has set Scotland back is a more interesting question.

Four Years On.... Scotland V Norway Previe

Revenge is possibly something on the mind of the Scotland players. Almost exactly 4 years ago, Norway came to Hampden and became the third side to win there in World Cup qualifiers (After Poland in 1965 and Wales in 1985, Belarus have also won a World Cup qualifier at Hampden in October 2005), pretty much ending the Berti Voghts era.

Again, this is a must win match, Scotland despite the win in Iceland are still behind the 8-ball thanks to their loss in Macedonia. As I said in an earlier blog, the away tie in Macedonia is possibly the toughest away tie (except the Holland tie) in the group. But to drop all 3 points, not the best start.

However, there are signs that George Burley is getting things right, I think that he must stick with a 3 man centre midfield, continuing the thread here established by Craig Brown with his use of 3-5-2, going up to Alex McLeish’s favoured 4-5-1. I was taken aback by the criticism of Burley after the Macedonia, led by Grumpy Jim Traynor. I did wonder, when listening to his phone in show, when did we turn into England. The negativity coming from the callers was strange, and somewhat Un-Scottish!

This is a must win game for Scotland, and is a vital one for Norway (who only have a 2-2 home draw against Iceland so far in this group), the key rivals for the playoff place. A win on Saturday will set Scotland up for the toughest game of the group, Holland in Amsterdam in March.

The Road To South Africa Begins…

There have been qualifiers in most parts of the world, notably in South America, but for the majority of European Countries, World Cup qualifying begins in earnest today, and for the home countries it’s a very mixed start. Wales should have no problems at home to Azerbaijan, while Northern Ireland attempt to carry on the momentum from their almost successful Euro 2008 campaign, with a tricky away trip to Slovakia. For England & Scotland, it is two very mixed starts.

Our qualifying group (of The Netherlands, Norway, Iceland & FYR Macedonia) theoretically should be escapable, compared to having 3 of the World Cup quarter finalists in our qualifying group last time (see below) , however when exactly have Scotland ever stuck to the script. For example, today’s game in Macedonia should be the easiest away fixture on the list. However Macedonia’s ranking is lower than their results suggest, draws in England (twice, during qualifying for the last 2 European Championships, picture below), their star player (Pandev) plies his trade with Lazio while others in the team are with respectable clubs in Belgium, Germany and France. Scotland being Scotland this could be the toughest fixture of the whole campaign, including the fixture in Amsterdam in March next year.

As opposed to the rest of the group, when we have had recent fixtures against the other teams, in qualifying for Euro 2004 and the last World Cup, this will be the first time that Scotland have played Macedonia, and only the second of the former Yugoslavian teams that Scotland have faced (we faced Croatia in qualifying for the 2002 World Cup). If Scotland escape with a draw, it could set us up nicely for the away trip on Wednesday to Iceland. 4 points out of 6 is a must from our opening fixtures.

In sharp contrast, England start away to Andorra, which WILL be their easiest away fixture in their qualifying group, and is also the only away fixture in Western Europe. Their qualifying group is something of a tour of the former eastern bloc, and also a list of banana skins (Croatia, Ukraine, Belarus & Kazakhstan being the other teams in England’s group). With only the top team qualifying as of right (with the second placed team facing a play-off), this looks to be a tough group for England. Ukraine will be smarting from finishing 4th in Euro 2008 qualifying (behind Italy, France & Scotland) and will want to put on a better show, while England’s next game (which is away to…) their rivals from the Euro 2008 qualifiers. Croatia will want to achieve their 4th World Cup finals appearance in a row, and will be confident of doing so after their performance in qualifying for the finals of Euro 2008, and some of their performances in the finals themselves.

In assessing England’s chances of qualifying from their group, you cannot underestimate how difficult this group is. Yet the English media are already doing exactly that, by focusing on how England are playing, the style of play, the absence of Michael Owen from the current squad… anything really than the match in hand. As with Scotland, 4 points from the away games in Barcelona and Zagreb are a must for England.

Foot In Mouth 2

The Scottish Government has repeated its calls for Scotland to have its own, separate team at the Olympics. Ministers said it would be good for Scottish sport. The SNP wants to hold an independence referendum in 2010 - two years before the Games in London.

Asked what Mr Maxwell would say to those Scots who would rather see Scotland's athletes play a big role in Team GB, Mr Maxwell replied: "What I would say to them, do Irish athletes want to rejoin the UK and be part of the UK team? Do we want to get rid of the GB team and have a European team because a European team would sweep the board? So I think you have to think about whether or not it's appropriate in the level you represent your own country in. I think it's quite right you represent your own country."

We finally have a team of winners at the Olympics, and this guy is calling for a seperate Scottish Olympic team. Chris Hoy has already said that he wouldn't be where he is today without the backup of the BOA, while Scotland saw the accrimonious defection about 8 years ago of champion squash player Peter Nicol.

A seperate Scottish Olympic team would be good, but i have one question for Stewart Maxwell, Show us the money!

Sports Picks of 2007 - 17th November

European Championship, Qualifying Group B : Scotland 1 Italy 2

Italy ended Scotland's Euro 2008 dream and ensured their own qualification for next summer's finals thanks to a Christian Panucci stoppage-time goal. Luca Toni had stunned the Scots by stabbing the ball home from five yards with less than two minutes gone.

But Ferguson forced the ball home when Lee McCulloch's effort was saved after 65 minutes only for Panucci to head home from a disputed Pirlo free kick. The Scots believed that Alan Hutton had been fouled and the resulting goal meant that Italy qualify along with France, with the Scots in third, before both have to play their final Group B games in midweek.

The campaign to qualify for the European Championships has seen one of the most unlikely comebacks. The Scotland national team looked to be going the way that the Wales and Northern Ireland teams had gone not so long ago. Yet just as Wales enjoyed a renascence, getting to a playoff of qualifying for a major championship 4 years ago, Scotland began its journey back from the wilderness at about the same time. Bizarrely I think that being in “the group of death” helped.

Lets be honest, we didn’t think that we would qualify. France, Italy and Ukraine were the top seeds in our group, which was hard enough before the three of them made the World Cup quarter finals (with France and Italy contesting the final). Below them was a list of teams, for whom playing against was no a pleasant experience for Scotland sides of the recent past. Lithuania (lost to them away in 2003) & the Faroes (Drew twice away from home, in 1999 and in 2002). Georgia were the only unknowns. What happened next was the roller-coaster ride of all roller-coaster rides. And it ended here, at Hampden, with a game against the World Champions, with a win for either team meaning qualification.

The hype was just incredible.

The game itself just went past in a blur. Thinking about it now, Scotland really have themselves to blame, and not just for losing to Georgia in October. A win there would have seen us home and dry. In the Italy game though, we controlled about 75% of the game. We fell asleep in the first couple of minutes, and let Toni in to score. Italy came back into the game after we equalised. We fell asleep at the end when defending the free kick, which Pannucci scored from (top picture).

The campaign was a return to the old Scottish way of doing things, glorious failure. We really should have qualified, especially after the 1-0 win in Paris. Its one thing to have a backs to the wall defeat against one of the worlds best sides at home, like we did last year. Its another thing to eclipse that with a win in the back yard of one of the best sides of the world, and to make them look impotent up front into the bargain. After about an hour I thought to myself that this will probably turn out to be a 0-0 draw, reached for a paper to skim through, and missed McFadden’s goal (pictured).

But fail to qualify we did. We failed not because we had the two world cup finalists in our group, but because we failed to beat Georgia in Georgia, and made defensive errors against Italy. Typical Scotland.

So where do we go from here? Alex McLeish resigned 10 days after the Italy game to manage Birmingham City, which leaves a vacuum at the top of the Scotland game. Of the supposed shortlisted candidates, Tommy Burns and George Burley would be my own preferred candidates, Burns having bossed Celtic a decade ago creating an excellent passing side, but one which crumbled under pressure. Burley took Ipswich from 1st Division to Europe in 3 seasons, and also put together the Hearts side which was top of the league when Romanov fell out with him and dismissed him. That Hearts side went on to lift the Scottish Cup and split the Old Firm.

Of the other two, Mark McGee has had a chequered past managing in the English lower divisions. However this season, his Motherwell side have been playing some excellent football, pushing for a place in the UEFA Cup next season. The dignified way that the Motherwell, and their manager dealt with the untimely death of their captain, Phil O’Donnell, has also brought praise McGee’s way. But McGee’s Motherwell side is still something of a work in progress. Which brings us to Souness. On paper Souness would be, of the four, the ideal candidate. Over 50 Scotland caps, a hatful of trophies as a player. Managed Rangers and Liverpool, then in Italy, Turkey (where the chairman of his bitter rivals described him as “a cripple” – which is why he planted the flag at the end of the Turkish Cup final in 1996), Portugal and back here with Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle. Yet there are doubts over his management skills. Hmmm, I know what you think.

Its not just the SFA board who need to think of their next step, there are players in Scotland who are good enough to play in the biggest leagues in the world, for the biggest teams. I hope that their next moves are for the betterment of their game, and not for the betterment of their bank balances.

The Final Act

Today will be a big day in qualification for next years European Championship. Northern Ireland need a win tonight against Denmark to stay in the hunt (their last game is away in Spain), while all of England will be hoping for an Israeli win over Russia this evening. The main event though will be in just about 2 hours when Scotland play Italy, needing a win to qualify (Italy play the Faroes & France are away to Ukraine on Wednesday, this is Scotland’s last game). Its Scotland’s biggest game since the Netherlands playoff game 4 years ago, and the most eagerly awaited Scotland game since the England play off games 8 years ago.
The hype started when Scotland beat France 1-0 in Paris in September. Since then we have beaten Ukraine 3-1 (I saw highlights of this game in Malta, with German commentary, weird!), but lost 2-0 in Georgia. Glasgow was full yesterday of people with various pieces of Scotland paraphernalia, Kilts and Scotland tops. Incredible. I only hope that if we lose, we don’t take it badly. We do have a good record against Italy in Scotland, we beat them 1-0 in qualifying for the 1966 world cup. We drew 0-0 at Ibrox in 1992 (USA ’94) and more recently we drew 1-1 at Hampden 2 years ago (See picture).

I think that we can win, I only hope that Italy aren’t in the mood to sweep us aside. I suspect that we will only get a draw, which will mean us hoping for a Ukraine win on Wednedsay.

More From The Group Of Death

“Italy striker Luca Toni scored with two headers to sink Scotland in the Euro 2008 qualifying match in Bari. The towering Toni was left unmarked to power in an early goal from a Massimo Oddo free-kick.
Scotland rallied briefly in the closing stages of the first half but Italy controlled the game for long spells. After an intensive period of pressure from the World Cup winners, Toni again found the net with ease after slack Scottish play on 70 minutes.”

The thing about football is that you can watch the same game, and yet come away with different conclusions. Saturday’s game is a rubbish example because by common consent, Scotland were rubbish, and were lucky to get the 2-1 win over Georgia (too many players just didn’t perform). Last night on the other hand, I thought Scotland played well, certainly better than the quote from the BBC Website would have you believe. However the difference was that Italy are an experienced collection of players who are exposed to football at the highest level, and they are the world champions (despite being 2nd seeds in this group when the draw was made 14 months ago).
Granted, the first goal was a defensive mistake. Free kick from the right finds Toni in some space, and he headers past Gordon. At that point it looked like Italy were in the mood to sweep Scotland aside. Scotland however dug in and got themselves into the game, creating a couple of chances before the break. Italy controlled the second half, and could have been home and hosed when di Natale was sent through not just once but twice, only to be denied by Gordon both times. The second goal once again came from the right as Camoranesi crossed for Toni to head home again.
The big plus out of these two games has been the emergence of the Hibernian midfielder Scott Brown, who gave urgency to the Scotland midfield on Saturday (when he came on), and was excellent getting forward to support Kenny Miller up front last night. Barry Ferguson, it has to be said, was better than average last night (why do Scottish Footballing pundits rate him so highly?). On the downside, Alexander continued to be as poor as he was on Saturday. Teale was OK, but Hartley was completely anonymous.The plus side from having a group like this is that you can create a side, hot house a couple of players, and find out exactly how good your players are without the stress and expectancy of qualification. For McLeish, like it was for Smith, we may lose like we did last night, we are still in a win-win situation.

Sporting Moments of 2006 IV - 7th October

Hello. My penultimate choice as sporting moment is a European Championship qualifier from October...


Scotland 1 France 0


Scotland sit proudly at the top of Euro 2008 qualifying Group B after a fabulous win over France at Hampden. Thierry Henry hit the post as France dominated the first 45 minutes but Scotland improved after the interval. Gary Caldwell, who was outstanding in defence, turned goal hero when he stabbed the ball home from a Paul Hartley corner kick on 67 minutes.


All I can really say is that this perhaps is the biggest result that the Scotland national team has ever pulled off. Yes we eliminated Czechoslovakia from the World Cup (qualifying for 1978) when they were European Champions. Yes we beat the Netherlands in the World Cup finals. Yes we have beaten Spain & France (when they finished 3rd in the previous World Cup) in World Cup qualifying. But that was all when we were Any Good, and its something we haven't been for a while.

Our problems came when, for whatever reason, we stopped producing good, young players. Ironically at the point when the financial squeeze on football began to grip the Scottish game, suddenly teams had to ditch the foreign player and play young homegrown players. For example, Motherwell had been shelling out big bucks for their big name players. When they went into administration, they had to start to get rid of the high earners, and in their place came young players who no-one had heard of, and nobody knew if they were ready. Guys like Hammell, Pearson and a cheeky winger called McFadden.


While this was happening, Scotland had missed out on the play-offs for the World Cup, which then saw the end of Craig Browns tenior in charge of the Scotland side. The SFA appointed Berti Voghts as Browns replacement.


Now at this point I should point out that i thing that Voghts wasn't a bad manager for Scotland, its just that results did not go his way. I feel that the turning point for him was the Euro 2004 playoff tie with the Netherlands. We had beaten them at Hampden (1-0, that man McFadden) and we were fairly confident that we could do something. Instead, the Netherlands did something by winning 6-0. His next match was a friendly in Cardiff against Wales, which he lost 4-0. If the writing wasn't on the wall then, then it was after the first 3 qualifying games for the 2006 World Cup (a 0-0 draw at home to Slovenia, a 1-0 loss to Norway, our first home loss in the World Cup for 19 years, and a 1-1 away draw to Moldova).


Enter Walter Smith, who's debut was a credible 2-0 defeat to Italy in Milan. Even with a 4th home loss in World Cup history (Belarus 1-0, in October 2005) we had come on in leaps and bounds since Voghts left. Unfortunately the draw for the European Championships hasn't been the kindest with us facing France, Italy, Ukraine, Georgia, Lithuania and the Faroe Islands.
So even with the good start (we beat the Faroes 6-0 at Parkhead and won in Lithuania 2-1). We still face an uphill struggle to qualify (and that was before our only loss of the campaign 2-0 in Ukraine). The performance in that match gives me confidence that we are turning the corner and could be on our way back!