Friday, 26 May 2017

Previously on General Election 2017



So...  where were we before we were so rudely interrupted by the Muslim equivalent of those Christian fundamentalists who kill doctors and bomb abortion clinics in the US.

Before the Tories are allowed to get away with hitting the reset button on a campaign that was close to collapse, we should remember the scale of what happened on Monday.  No sitting government has ever u-turned or performed anything remotely close to a u-turn during a re-election campaign. Ever.

Yes, we need to think about care for the elderly and how it is funded (and Ian Smart writes a rather thought provoking and interesting piece on this).  However the Tories have rushed to conclusions and not thought out how to proceed.  It is not the first time this decade a sensible issue has been handled carelessly by the Conservatives with electoral consequences.  Think back to the EU referendum and before that the Sermon on the Pound.

However, at the end of last weekend there was a debate on BBC Scotland which partly over shadowed the Tories polling collapse.  There were two noteworthy issues to come out of that debate.  The first issue surrounded that Nurse.

Without really doing very much, the nurse that has to go to foodbanks and brought up nurses pay unwittingly uncovered the inverse snobbery that we Scot’s excel at.  After her appearance, she was subjected to the fullest assault from pro-SNP supporters on the Twittersphere, with some people claiming that she was a) married to a Tory councillor and therefore b) a Tory plant.  Both of which are falsehoods, lies which the SNP candidate Joanna Cherry did apologise for.  However, once again parts of the “Yes community” couldn’t help themselves and behaved like an unofficial secret police in dredging up parts of this woman’s life into the public domain.

Had those parts of the “Yes community” shown a modicum of restraint, we would have remembered that the First Minister actually handled the nurses questions and statements rather well and with understanding.  With Sturgeon expressing regret that she has been unable to raise nurses pay more than she has been able to, whilst pointing out her pay is higher that it is in England.  It is worth bearing in mind though that nurses pay is between £22-26,000.  The average wage in Scotland is around £28,000.  Something to bear in mind when we talk about the cost of independence and Scotland being too poor to be Independent without pointing out why living standards are so low here.  Instead, the story became about the so called ‘Cybernats’ and their alpha-chimp.

The most striking thing about that debate is that the election here in Scotland is now between the Tories and the SNP.  It was simply astonishing to see how diminished Scottish Labour have become, more so under Dugdale.  Her answers were not convincing, and Dugdale and Scottish Labour’s decision to sideline Corbyn’s manifesto (which is infinitely the most attractive Labour Manifesto in my voting lifetime) in favour of a ‘Stop Indyref 2’ campaign has and will backfire on them come election time.

It should come as no surprise whatsoever that Scottish Labour is now a very different animal from it’s English counterpart.  Whereas i think that Corbyn’s opposition to Scottish Independence is down to his (misplaced) view that the SNP are nationalists and not proponents of Scottish self determination and a view that Independence is electoral poison in England.  Scottish Labour’s opposition is dogmatic & kneejerk with very little actual arguments against, which as we’ve discussed ad nauseam has led to them being ridiculed under the #SNPBad hashtag.

Had Scottish Labour thought properly about this, they would have come up with more nuanced arguments against Independence and realised that talking about Independence all the time obscures their policies and values.  They would also be in a much better position to provide constructive opposition if they weren’t seen as the anti-SNP party.  That’s not to say I think they’re wrong in opposing Scottish Independence – there is a constituency of Scottish voters who are anti-Independence but are not Conservative in their thinking yet would only be given the option of voting Tory – but their opposition is poorly though out, incoherent and not solid enough.  A symbol of Scottish Labour’s approach to Independence is their relationship with Better Together.  They were happy to share stages with the Lib Dems and the Tories, they were happy to take the Tories money and happy to mouth Tory scripted attack lines yet could not understand how and why this offended Scottish voters.

This issue of course leads to the tenability of Kezia Dugdale as Scottish Labour leader.  This is her second big election campaign and there are no signs whatsoever of lessons being learned. The problem, should Dugdale stand down, is the one of there not being an obvious replacement and one who can rebuild Labour into a party that can put someone into Bute House.  If there is no Labour advance in two weeks, then i’d think there will be trouble ahead for Ms Dugdale.

With campaigning getting back underway, it will be interesting to see the effect of Nursegate and the increasing irrelevance of Scottish Labour on this election.  At a wider level, an election that was billed as May’s coronation looked on Monday night to have turned sour.  If the Tories have successfully hit the reset button, it could still be a big win but there is now uncertainty, for the first time, about the result.

Friday, 19 May 2017

The Losers Debate



With the news that the Tories are still averaging in the high 40’s and Labour’s percentages are creeping up, the conclusion that you could make about ITV’s third outing of “I Want To Be Prime Minister” is that with the exception of the Scottish First Minister, none of the participants were in with a chance of making a dent in the already nascent election campaign, never mind in with a shout of the big prize.

Nicola from Ayrshire aka the SNP’s leader and First Minister of Scotland is already a dab hand at these affairs. I do wonder though whether the ease which she sailed through this was down to her skill at these affairs or whether no one actually had the knowledge or the nouse to tackle her on her record as Scottish First Minister.  As a result she sailed through the section on Education without one single mention either of the literacy figures or the pigs ear that is the replacement to Standard Grades & Highers.  Nobody brought up her policy of a 50% tax rate for the UK but not setting the higher rate at that level here in Scotland.  Her reasoning for that sounding suspiciously like George Osborne’s reasoning for cutting the top rate from 50% to 45%.  I don’t even think the UKIP guy laid a glove on her regarding her record on bringing the country together in the aftermath of the EU Referendum.

Then again, Scottish affairs have never really featured very high on the UK news cycles.  Which is why a high profile figure like Sturgeon can get away with being the darling of the progressive classes while pursuing a New Labour agenda in Scotland?  And why when Caroline Lucas talked about Free Care for the Elderly, Dim Faron didn’t claim the policy as his parties policy (pushed through by Jim Wallace when he was Deputy First Minster in the Labour/Lib Dem coalition). But certainly being a part of the non-Labour aligned progressive alliance (as opposed to the soon to be a thing Progressive Alliance party) paid off for Sturgeon as no one really laid a glove on her.

Unfortunately the story is more about who ducked out rather than the participants who did take part.  For all that Lucas was perfectly sane and sensible, that Sturgeon sailed through and that Nuttall was cast as the pantomime villain, the two main protagonists in this election were missing.  We all know the reasons, that May is believed to be a stiff and somewhat poor debater and that Corbyn...  well actually I’m not sure why he declined to appear.  I’m surely not alone in thinking that however bad a leader he is, he can’t surely be that bad against Wood, Lucas, Farron & Nuttall.  That and actually this could have been an opportunity to put your ideas across.  Polling suggests that there has been an increase in Labour’s vote, this could have been an opportunity to consolidate that increase.

While Julie Etchingham chided May & Corbyn for refusing their invite for this debate, I think that they should have empty chaired them, empty lecterns and all.  It would have been a visible symbol of parties that wanted to disrespect the UK voter.  Instead, I think Corbyn and more so May have rather gotten away with it.  Had both been there, we would have (for better or worse) seen the true mettle of the prospective prime ministers.  A by-product would be that we would have seen Sturgeon up against people who in the past (given the way she bulldozed through Michael Moore & Allistair Carmichael during the independence referendum) would have been a winnable test.  A much more difficult task than what was presented tonight.

Given ITV’s previous debates resembled game shows (and how nice of them to re-cycle the set from two years ago) then this edition is difficult to pin down.  The winner will not be the one striding up Downing Street in three weeks claiming victory.  Indeed, you could argue with the Lib Dems not cutting through, the SNP looking at defending seats rather than rolling through them, UKIP falling into history and Plaid and the Greens looking to hold on to what they have, the parties represented could end up as losers to varying degrees come June 9th. That rather suits Theresa May’s Tories just fine.

Monday, 15 May 2017

About That Mandate...



Quite possibly the only true thing the leader of Holyrood’s opposition party, Ruth Davidson, has uttered is her belief that we have passed, in her own phrase, “peak Nat”.  Whether that is as true as Davidson would like it to be and that the SNP suffer 20-30 seat losses in three weeks remains to be seen. It somehow feels that for all we were lauding the Imperial phase of the SNP, this era has now ended.

The Tories remake of the video for Cher's "If I Could Turn
Back Time" proves to be a hit with the media.
Arguably the thinking about how to play this election has lead to some muddled arguments from the SNP.  Should they make this about Independence or should this be about Brexit and the holding of the government’s feet to the fire in relation to the EU referendum.  As a result, we have seen the SNP move away from Independence thought still saying that this election will have no bearing on their plans to hold a second Independence referendum.  This is a card that both Labour and the Conservatives are flipping and trying to turn into an issue.

That both parties are attempting to run an openly anti-Independence campaign perhaps says more about the thinking behind both parties than it does about the SNP.  For “Scottish” Labour, this is a line which has directly led them to being deposed as the SNP’s strongest challengers.  “Scottish” Labour’s  out and out hostility alienated lots of left wing voters, attracted not just by the SNP but the idea that “Another Scotland is Possible” to borrow the Common Weal’s tagline.  You would, have though that having seen lots of voters decamp to the SNP would cause Scottish Labour to pause for thought.  I think however it’s not their hostility to Independence which has done for them, more their unreconstructed hatred of the SNP resulting in a dislike of everything the SNP do.  This non constructive approach, which led to the #SNPBad hashtag and the ensuing ridicule which also drives away potential voters.

The Conservatives on the other hand have only recently hardened their stance on Independence and have seen some electoral success thanks to that new found ‘standing up for the union’ stance.  They took four FPTP seats in last years Holyrood Election, Jackson Carlaw’s victory in Eastwood on a swing of 5.7% to unseat Ken MacIntosh and to deprive the SNP of victory could perhaps be seen as the start of the Tories revival and proof that Davidson was on to something in standing up for the 55%ers.  More than the vagaries of the list vote, it was the SNP’s loss of seats to the Lib Dem’s (North East Fife on a swing of 9.5% and Edinburgh Western on a swing of 7.8%) which deprived the SNP of a second Holyrood majority.

Top 8 Conservative Target Seats
Seat
SNP Vote
Swing Required
Berwickshire, Roxborough & Selkirk
20,145
0.3%
Dumfries & Galloway
23,440
5.8%
Aberdeen West & Kincardine
22,949
6.4%
Perth & North Perthshire
27,379
8.9%
Moray
24,384
9.2%
East Renfrewshire*
23,013
9.3%
Aberdeen South*
20,221
9.4%
Edinburgh South West*
22,168
11.4%
* = currently third placed in this constituency

While the SNP are perfectly correct in saying that they hold a mandate to hold a second referendum thanks to that Holyrood win, perhaps the question should be whether they should.  With the EU Referendum and the result of the last UK Election, everything has changed.  Except that nothing has really changed at all with the SNP’s outlook towards selling an Independent Scotland firmly within the EU.  And that’s a problem when there’s a sizable minority happy to be leaving the EU.  The other issue the SNP have created is their creation of and interpretation of “material change”.  It is this interpretation which, given the Holyrood election last year, might backfire.

For the first time, and due in no small thanks to the EU Referendum, the SNP are not in control of the narrative.  The signs though were there in the Holyrood elections with those unexpected reverses to the Lib Dems.  It is the Conservative’s who are in charge of the media narrative and the SNP on the defensive.  While we are certainly past peak Tsunami SNP, and this was self evident two weeks ago whether you believed in the nominal figures or not, whether we have gone past ‘peak Nat’ is another matter entirely.  The latest polling suggests a swing to the Tories of around 10.5%.  If this is to be believed, then both Pete Wishart (Perth & North Perthshire) and the Westminster Leader Angus Robertson (Moray) are at risk of losing their seats to their Conservative opponents.

Top 5 Lib Dem Target Seats
Seat
SNP Vote
Swing Required
East Dumbartonshire
22,093
2.0%
Edinburgh West
21,378
3.0%
North East Fife
18,523
4.8%
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
15,831
5.6%
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
20,119
6.2%

Polling also suggests a drop in support for the SNP.  It might be because of the SNP’s post EU referendum tactics or it could be because of dissatisfaction with the SNP’s performance as Scottish Government.  This drop could also enable the Lib Dem’s to repeat their trick from Holyrood.  The Westminster equivalent’s to the seats taken by the Lib Dem’s last May do appear in the five winnable seats but are topped by John Nicholson’s East Dumbartonshire.  The re-run of 2015 with Jo Swinson attempting to retake this seat looks like being a contest to watch.

The Tory narrative is to vote for them to derail Indyref 2.  I think the only way that this can be derailed will be if the Tories make big gains, gains which at the moment look highly unlikely, having said that I think that the SNP can maybe afford three losses.  On the other hand, if the Lib Dem’s regain North East Fife and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and if Pete Wishart or Angus Robertson lose their seats to the Tories – scenarios which are likely – then all of a sudden the narrative shifts once again and Indyref 2 will look like a not very winnable prospect.