Wednesday, 1 October 2008

The Next Government?

This blog was supposed to be posted on Monday.

On the face of it, David Cameron is an absolute shoo in to be the next Prime Minister, there is nothing to worry him as he moves toward an expected landslide at the next election. Well that’s not really true. Apart from not wanting to be the conservative’s version of Kinnock. Remember, he lead in the polls up to 4 days before the ‘92 election before his fate was sealed with what those traumatised will only refer to as ‘Sheffield’.

No, Cameron’s problem is that despite the 15 point leads in the polls, and the praise from the Anglo-centric media, there are areas completely immune to the Cameron effect, the North of England, and specifically Scotland. Missed in the heat of the Glasgow East by-election was really how badly the Tories did in this area, 3rd some 10000 votes behind second place.

I suspect that it will be business as usual regarding this ‘problem‘, that lip-service will be paid to us Scots, its not as if very many swing seats are here North of the border. Theoretically, Cameron’s biggest problem, to team Cameron at least, is to give some policy announcements, and put some flesh on previous policy statements, the sermon at St Jude’s, at the start of the Glasgow East by-election campaign, springs readily to mind where he blamed fat people, poor people etc etc for their own predicament. How very Thatcherite.

To return from the tangent though, the fact that the “next government” will only poll about 25% at most (and only get 1, maybe 2 but at most 4 out of 59 Scottish MP’s) at the next election should be a cause for concern for Conservative MP’s. If they believe in the Union, now is the chance to show that concern, because any more of the lip service that we have been getting, and there will be no more United Kingdom in 4 years.

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