Tuesday, 5 May 2009

The Next Election Will Be On...

With all the fuss surrounding the 30th anniversary of the election of Thatcher (and I still have a blog in the pipeline on that subject), it has been missed that this current parlament is now 4 years old. With an election to be called within the next 13 months, what are the options for potential dates for the next Westminster Elections.

4th June
This option appears to have already gone out of the window, if the current polling figures are to be believed. This was a favoured date by many commentators before Brown became PM.

2nd/9th July
Again dates that can be all but ruled out because of polling figures. I did think that this would be ther earliest date that Brown would go to the country. However, if New Labour do not suffer the expected bloodbath at the European elections, a trip to the palace may be on the cards in early June.

29th October/5th November
Brown will have seen out the summer, and may have seen his poll rating improve. He may launch an election campaign on the back of a probable successful conference season. On the other hand, Brown’s poll figures might be just as bad, that and that was the rational with the flunked election 2 years ago. Also, there has been no October election since 1974, and no November election since the 1930’s

8th/15th April 2010
Brown might pull a Major circa 1992 trick here by announcing an election on the back of a give away budget. The usual unpicking of New Labour’s budgets might be lost in the background noise of the election campaign. Then again…

6th May 2010
Local election day in England and Wales, New Labour have traditionally chosen to double up elections. This is being discussed as the most likely date.

3rd June 2010
The last date possible to hold an election. On the 2 occasions that governments have gone the distance (since universal suffrage, the elections in 1964 and 1997), they have lost.

Whichever date Brown picks, there are incentives, and negatives which would put doubt in a cautious person.


subrosa said...

Good analysis Alan. Can I ask a personal question? Do you wear sunglasses when it's raining too? :)

Allan said...

Yes, and at night...