Friday, 6 May 2011

Imminent Superlatives Alert

Just about to turn in, 4 seats in and all the indications (usual caviats... available so far) show that the SNP are on course to consolodate their position as the largest party in the Holyrood Parliament.

Each of those results have shown a drop in support for Labour, coupled with a rise in the support for the SNP. In the first result Labour held Rutherglen, but with a reduced majority.  The swing to the SNP was a remarkable 7.5%.  The next two results announced were astonishing, with the SNP unseating the shadow Finance Secretary Andy Kerr (in East Kilbride), and the former cabinet minister Tom McCabe (in Hamilton).  Kerr was unseated with a swing of 6.6% to the SNP while McCabe was ousted by a huge swing of 11%.

In keeping with this trend, the SNP have taken Clydesdale on an 8.9% swing.  With these kinds of swings, it looks like Salmond will have his second term as First Minister. It also looks like, not so much of a bad night for Labour but a disasterous night, even though the share of vote is currently about 2% down.  The only question left to answer is whether the SNP will supass Labour's record of 56 seats (that they won in 1999).

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