Friday, 7 May 2010

The Marathon Election Night

In my previous elections, i do not remember such an uncertain picture.  Yet if you look at the big picture, the new parliament fits into place.


The big story of the night has been the prospect of a hung parliament.  As it stands, Brown has clearly lost the election.  He, from his body language, knows it.  But the electorate look as if they don’t quite trust Cameron.  And who can blame them.  I can’t quite believe the comments of the Paisley South Tory candidate, where he claimed that regarding spending cuts - “There were no sacred cows, apart from the NHS” , was not more widely reported.  But to quote Douglas Alexander, it was a two horse race, and his horse lost.


While Comedy Dave ponders his next move, at this point he has gained 53 seats but is still in hung parliament territory, he still has some work to do even after the results are in.  Nick Clegg must wonder where it has all gone wrong.  We were all set for 80+ Lib Dems in the new parliament…  until the exit poll pointed to the possibility of losses.  I suspect that the Tory and New Labour misrepresentation of the Lib Dem’s immigration policy might have cost them votes, as well as all the talk of coalitions and how to play the hung parliament game.


Here in Scotland, we have taken all the economic warnings and…  well stuck our heads in the sand and re-elected exactly the same people who lost their nerve when the Bankers were threatening all sorts.  It is incredibly dispiriting to see these failures re-elected.  Yes Thatcher destroyed our industries, and our ship-building, but Labour deprived those industries of funds to modernise, and New Labour stood back and let the financial industries do as they pleased.  Remember, it was they who stood back as Kraft stole Cadbury and said nothing to do with us guv. The feeble 40 indeed…


I think that the SNP missed a trick this election, focusing on cuts clearly didn’t work.  I also think the SNP need to work out a narrative for Westminster elections, to figure out where they fit in regarding Westminster.  As Scotland’s main pro-independence party, that should in theory be easy to figure out.


As the swing sits at the moment, and it is an average figure, the current swing is showing as 5.2% to the Conservatives.  On the calculus, this turns out as…

Conservative's 301
New Labour 263
Liberal Democrat 59
Other’s 27

… which shows the Conservatives short by 24.  I think that this will be the final score with 200 seats to declare.


Time for bed methinks…

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