Thursday, 6 May 2010

Polls Close!

Exit poll’s in…

Conservatives – 307
New Labour - 255
Lib Dems – 59
Others – 29
Tories short by 19 seats
Just about my pre-campaign prediction, surprised at the Lib Dems dropping 3 seats.  Has the Tories running on immigration worked?  Who knows what would have happened if the campaign had continued?  Are we in for a re-run of 1992 where a late swing is missed? New Labour are predicted to shed about 100 seats, no meltdown?
But we shall see if this is how the commons looks come tea-time tomorrow…

PS: as this is my 200th post, can i again thank those who have read my posts and those who comment.

PPS: Bugger, they've let Tavish Scott out of whatever zoo he's been hiding away in.

22:53  First declaration: Houghton & Sunderland South, Labour hold but 8.4% swing to the Tories.

23:08 Exit poll has now been revised...

Conservitives - 305
New Labour -  255
Lib Dems - 61
Others - 29 - Tories now short by 21

Still a disapointing night for the Lib Dem's if this turns out to be the final result.  The Sunderland Swing would be enough to the see the Tories home with around a 50 seat majority if replicated...

23:27 Washington: Labour hold, again a lower majority - 11.6 % swing to the Tories.  As Archie would say Woooof.  First of the key seats coming up soon, Sunderland Central.

23:42 Sunderland Central: Labour hold, lower majority - lower swing to the tories (4.8%) this time.  A break in the pattern this constituancy.  The BNP have picked up 1000 votes in each of the three constituancies so far.

00:29 BBC reporting that the Greens have taken the seat of Brighton, their first seat at Westminster level.

By the way, Hollywood Patter and Malc are doing some live blogging too. All quiet on the western front...

00:52: A couple of results have snuck under the radar - New Labour hold Darlington, on a reduced majority - swing to the Tories 9.1%.  Labour hold Durham, 8.9% swing to the Tories.  Thornbury & Yate a Lib Dem hold but a swing to the Tories of 4.3%.  A result that might send shivers up the party workers in Cowley Street.

00:59: Arfo has fallen to Plaid Cymru, the first gain of the night, on a 3.7% swing.  New Labour has been on the skids in Wales, this seems to confirm that trend.

01:03: Kingswood has fallen to the Tories, their first gain of the night - a huge result as the swing is 9.4%.  The BBC is reporting that this seat is 135th on the Tories list.  Lib Dem vote slightly down as well.  Are we seeing another 1992, where the exit polls missed late swing to the Tories?  The BBC are also reporting that Basildon South has also gone blue.  Basildon & Battersea are running late.

01:08: First Scottish result, Labour hold Rutherglen, with a 1.5% swing to SNP.

01:10:  Lib Dems hold Torbay, 1.5% swing to Lib Dems.  57th on the Tory list that one.

01:15: Another Scottish result, Labour hold Motherwell + Wishaw, with a 1% swing to Labour from the SNP

Jeremy Vine is making the point that the swing in Labour's north east heartlands is hugely against the dominant party.  Yet the two results from Scotland shows no swing against Labour.  Do Scot's scare more easily one wonders, vote for us or the Bogey-Thatcher will get you!

01:22: Phil Wilson holds on to the Sedgefield seat once occupied by one Tony Blair.  11.6% swing to the Tories here.

01:33: Labour hold Kirkaldy - Brown's back in the Common's, his 7th term as MP for the seat.

01:37: Brown's speech is somewhat spoiled by the big blue banner saying "Con Gain Battersea" - and they have!  9th on the Tories list, they take it with a swing of 6.5%  - Brown ends his speech saying "I won't let you down" - a downbeat speech.  Tonight maybe is the end of the New Labour project after all.

01:45: Labour hold Dundee East - an SNP target.  A swing away from the SNP of 2.5%  Not a good night for the SNP so far.  Glenrothes has seen a 6% swing to Labour too.

01:55: Conservitives hold Guildford - bad news for the Lib Dems as this was top of their list of target seats.  6.9% swing here.

01:57: First gain of the night for Labour, Blaenau Gwent in Wales from Peoples Voice...

02:00: SNP on the scoreboard at last, holding Angus.  Depressingly though Eric Joyce is back into parliament, having been re-elected by Falkirk.  7% swing to the SNP though.

02:04: Ben Bradshaw holds Exeter.  A loss here would have pointed to a huge Tory majority.  As it is the Tory swing is 6%.

02:06: Glasgow East has been retained by Labour, on a swing of 3.4% (from the 2005 election result).  Thatcheresque is the only word to describe Margaret Curran's expression.

02:11: another SNP target goes a beggng as Labour retain Livingstone...  as wee Dougie is re-elected. Joy...

02:15: More on Paisley South, SNP re-take 2nd place.  Interestingly the Tory candidate Gordon McCaskill- the chap who said that there was no sacred cows regarding spending cuts - took third , edging the Lib Dem into fourth.  So much for my vote.

02:29: Lembit's out! Huge swing to the Tories

02:33: Good news for the AJ4PM bloggers, Johnson is back in Parliament.  Perth & North Perthshire stays SNP, with an increased majority.  Basildon South and Thurrock has also gone blue, with a huge 7.5% swing.  Tamworth's swing was even bigger, 9.5%.

02:40: The hammer of the Nat's is back in Westminster...  Jim Murphy retains his seat in East Renfrewshire.  Increased majority as well.  Missed opportunities Salmond...

02:48: Salmond apparently doesn't understand Glasgow, according to Murphy, as if Glasgow is some sort of parallell universe.

In the real world  The Lib dems have gained Eastbourne and Somerset & Frome, and held Eastleigh.  The Tories have won Pendle, ousting Gordon Prentice, Stafford and Erewash & Harrogate.  Erewash was won on a 10% swing by the way.


02:57: Tories gain Blackpool North on a 6.9% swing (4.25% swing was required).  Derbeyshire South has also gone blue on a 9.8% swing.  The Cam-bot is also back into Westminster, for his 3rd Term in the Commons.

03:01:  As Tom Harris retains his seat, the Cam-bot says that Labour has lost his mandate to govern, and that the country wants change. Boy there are a lot of missed opportunities out there.

03:10: Darling retains his seat too on a swing of 1% to Labour.  Tacturn speech.  I wonder if Darling might be an outside bet for Labour leader if/when Brown steps down.  SNP beaten into 3rd place in Glasgow North West

03:14 Jo Swinson clings on to her Dunbartonshire East seat, surviving a 2.1% swing to Labour.

03:23: Currently the results indicate an average swing of just under 5% to the Conservitives, which points to the Tories falling 29 seats short of an overall majority (Tory:296, Lab: 269,Lib Dem: 58, others: 27).  Not far off the exit poll at the start of the evening.

03:35:Newton Abbot has gone Tory, gained from the Lib Dem's on a 5.8% swing.  Andrew Smith has held on to his seat though, on a 4% swing.  Lib Dem's have gained Burnley from Labour though, on a huge 9% swing.  Oh and Hague's back into the commons.

03:45: Tories take Carlisle, big win. Needing 7%, they managed a swing of 7.7%.  That would have suggested a big Tory win, but...  but...  but..

03:35: Rochdale stays red, confirming the Lib dem's are not having the best of nights.  Small swing to Labour in Biggot-gate county...

03:49: Romsey & Southampton North has gone Blue, a 4.5% swing from the Lib Dems.  That first "Leaders Debate"  seems a very long time ago.

03:51: David Mundell keeps his seat, a 2.6% swing to the Tories.  Will he be the only Tory in the village?

04:04: Stockton South goes blue...  7% swing.  They have also ousted the independent MP Richard Taylor from Wyre Forrest.

04:14: Aaaand there's the body blow result of the night, Labour hold Ochil, another swing away from the SNP, this time by 4.4%.

04:35: Jaqui Smith has been ousted, losing to a 9% swing.

04:54: Balls retains his seat, but the former Home secretary Charles Clarke is ousted, a big win for the Lib Dems.  Balls stays as a contender to succede Brown...


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